Barriers of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine during the war: the simulation study using ARIMA model

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of June 2022, more than 545 million cases have been registered worldwide, more than 6.34 million of which have died. The gratuitous and bloody war launched by Russia in Ukraine has affected the public health system, including disruptions to COVID-19 vaccination plans. The use of simulation models to estimate the necessary coverage of COVID-19 vaccination in Ukraine will make it possible to rapidly change the policy to combat the pandemic in the wartime. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 vaccination model in Ukraine and to study the impact of war on this process. The study is multidisciplinary and includes a sociological study of the attitude of the population of Ukraine toward COVID-19 vaccination before the escalation of the war, the modeling of the vaccine campaign, forecasting the required number of doses administered after the start of the war, epidemiological analysis of the simulation results. This research targeted the COVID-19 epidemic process during the war. The research subjects are the methods and models of epidemic process simulation based on statistical machine learning. Sociological analysis methods were applied to achieve this goal, and an ARIMA model was developed to assess COVID-19 vaccination coverage As a result of the study, the population of Ukraine was clustered in attitude to COVID-19 vaccination. As a result of a sociological study of 437 donors and 797 medical workers, four classes were distinguished: supporters, loyalists, conformists, and skeptics. An ARIMA model was built to simulate the daily coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations. A retrospective forecast verified the model's accuracy for the period 01/25/22 - 02/23/22 in Ukraine. The forecast accuracy for 30 days was 98.79%. The model was applied to estimate the required vaccination coverage in Ukraine for the period 02/24/22 – 03/25/22. Conclusions. A multidisciplinary study made it possible to assess the adherence of the population of Ukraine to COVID-19 vaccination and develop an ARIMA model to assess the necessary COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Ukraine. The model developed is highly accurate and can be used by public health agencies to adjust vaccine policies in wartime. Given the barriers to vaccination acceptance, despite the hostilities, it is necessary to continue to perform awareness-raising work in the media, covering not only the events of the war but also setting the population on the need to receive the first and second doses of the COVID-19 vaccine for previously unvaccinated people, and a booster dose for those who have previously received two doses of the vaccine, involving opinion leaders in such works.