Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5\% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt<1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

Association Between Comorbid Hypertension and the Severity of COVID-19 at National Emergency Hospital Wisma Atlit Kemayoran Jakarta

“…The severity of COVID-19 based on the symptoms that appearedwas divided into asymptomatic, mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19. 3,16 This assessment was based on clinical manifestations, physical examination, and supporting examinations obtained. In asymptomatic COVID-19 sufferers, the patient did not feel any symptoms.…”

“…In patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms, the patientexperienced clinical symptoms of pneumonia in the form of fever, cough, shortness of breath, and fast breathing plus one of these symptoms, namely respiratory frequency >30 x/minute or severe respiratory distress or SpO2 <93% in room air. 16,17 The SARS-CoV-2 virus used the Angiotensin Converting Enzyme (ACE) 2 receptor to arrive at target cells. 18 This interferes with the activity of ACE 2, which was involved in the conversion of angiotensin 2 to angiotensin (1-7).…”

The Impact of Mass Exodus on the Resurgence of COVID19 Cases: Study Case of Regions in Indonesia

“…Thousands of papers related to the spread of the Covid-19 model involving several aspects have been published. Several papers using data in Indonesia, i.e discuss a simple model with data on the city of Jakarta at the beginning of the pandemic using the Richard curve [22], [23] the SIR model [24], the super spreading problem with Batam -Depok data [25], PSBB in Jakarta [26], scenarios of vaccine implementation in Indonesia [27] and how the model is applied to policymakers [28]. The term stands for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered, and deceased, classifying people into five groups.…”