Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

Infectious Disease Modeling with Socio-Viral Behavioral Aspects—Lessons Learned from the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a University

“…The convenience of compartmental models in respect of adding more variables has resulted in their being widely used in infectious disease modeling [ 4 ]. Besides providing each state’s estimated figure, this approach can also provide the reproductive ratio, which represents the expected number of secondary cases generated by one primary case [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]. In most of the constructed models, the reproductive ratio acts as a crucial threshold; above one indicates endemic, while below one indicates disease-free [ 8 ].…”