Modeling and Simulation of Project Management through the PMBOK® Standard Using Complex Networks

Abstract

Discussion about project management, in both the academic literature and industry, is predominantly based on theories of control, many of which have been developed since the 1950s. However, issues arise when these ideas are applied unilaterally to all types of projects and in all contexts. In complex environments, management problems arise from assuming that results, predicted at the start of a project, can be sufficiently described and delivered as planned. Thus, once a project reaches a critical size, a calendar, and a certain level of ambiguity and interconnection, the analysis centered on control does not function adequately. Projects that involve complex situations can be described as adaptive complex systems, consistent in multiple interdependent dynamic components, multiple feedback processes, nonlinear relations, and management of hard data (process dynamics) and soft data (executive team dynamics). In this study, through a complex network, the dynamic structure of a project and its trajectories are simulated using inference processes. Finally, some numerical simulations are described, leading to a decision making tool that identifies critical processes, thereby obtaining better performance outcomes of projects.

Development of an economic­mathematical model to determine the optimal duration of project operations

“…The objective function (1), model constraints (2), (3) were determined, and the choice of the optimum variant of the duration of works was considered taking into account the minimization of time and expenses (4), (5). The algorithm implies determining the weight factors using expert estimations (the method of direct estimation) (6), (7), and the elements of combinatorics for finding the possible combinations of the duration of project stages (8).…”

“…The developed model, unlike the models in papers [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13], takes into consideration the peculiarities of a particular project, is a combination of the methods of expert evaluation and modeling. The objective function is the probability of successful project implementation.…”

“…It is noted in article [8] that one of the main problems in project management is the use of the management theories, which were developed quite a long time ago, to all types of projects. That is why the forecast, which is made at the be-ginning of a project, does not correspond to reality at the end of it.…”

Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

“…A good simulation model allows for properties of the project planning and schedules to be depicted, ascertained, and predicted [14,15]. Furthermore, it is important to bear in mind that the way the schedule is developed has a significant influence on the overall management of any project [16].…”

A Proactive Robust Scheduling Method for Aircraft Carrier Flight Deck Operations with Stochastic Durations

“…In other cases of uncertainty, however, the duration uncertainty may be represented by random variables with different continuous general distributions (i.e., truncated normal distribution, uniform and exponential). The effect that uncertain durations exert on the makespan of a complex operation network can only be evaluated by simulations [55].…”