Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Urgilés, Paúl T; Gil, Juan Claver; Sebastián, Miguel Ángel

doi:10.1155/2019/3190830

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Simultaneously, by the creation of this method, the accuracy of predicting project durations of the EVM was improved. The authors Urgilés, P. et al [34] worked on the control analysis comparing the efficiency of the EVM technique and its earned schedule extension, as a means of forecasting costs and deadlines. It was stated that the increased reliability levels result in a greater probability, which allows for determining reliable limit boundaries.…”

Section: • Stochastic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of deterministic methods (see Appendix A for monitoring labor productivity and their deviances, in continuation of literature [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]), we can calculate the length of construction processes based on predefined relations which are incorporated into the given construction software. In the case of stochastic methods (see Appendix A, in continuation of literature [26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]), deviances from the planned performance are assessed using the probability theory and statistical methods in combination with the use of a construction software. Simulation techniques (see Appendix A, in continuation of literature [44][45][46][47]) form a so-called inter-developmental level of the construction management, falling in between the application of a classic method using a construction software and a combination of the statistical methods and a construction software.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time Connection of Subsequent Construction Processes Estimated by Statistical Method

Smugala

Kubečková

2022

Applied Sciences

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An integral part of managing the construction of investment units is the monitoring of labor productivity using statistical methods in combination with construction software. Such a combination includes a number of methods and modeling, among which is a method for determining the probability of the completion of construction processes based on the recorded mean value of labor productivity and its variations. For investment units consisting of two or more objects, it is necessary to assess the probability of the completion of construction processes related to follow-up activities and which are carried out by the same work crews. Based on the selected probability modeling, the aim of this contribution was to show how statistical methods and software support can contribute to savings in resources, both human and time, in construction production. The aspect is documented in a case study of residential buildings. The Lindeberg–Lévy and Moivre–Laplace theory and the Bernoulli principle were used for mathematical modeling. The CONTEC construction software was applied as the software support. The performed modeling showed a decrease in the mean value of performance for all the processes examined compared to the planned values, except for the implementation of reinforced concrete monolithic structures. For these reasons, the working capacities had to be increased in order to meet construction milestones.

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Section: • Stochastic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Connection of Subsequent Construction Processes Estimated by Statistical Method

Smugala

Kubečková

2022

Applied Sciences

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“…A new forecasting method is developed based on the Kalman filter and the earned schedule method of Kim and Reinschmidt (2010), removing poor accuracy of the EVM in predicting project durations. The control analysis completed by Urgilés et al (2019) compares the efficiency of the EVM technique and its Earned Schedule extension, as means of forecasting costs and deadlines. S curve (SS-curve) as an alternative method in relation to the determining S curve is applied to the control construction process, according to study presented by Barraza et al (2004).…”

Section: Related Work From Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of construction process duration based on labor productivity estimation: A case study

Kubečková

Smugala

2021

Organization, Technology and Management in Construction: An International Journal

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Monitoring labor productivity and how to decrease construction costs are the key issues in the planning process of a construction project. The CONTEC automated system combined with statistical methods assists in predicting the amount of time required to complete construction works according to the specified number of deployed work crews, technological processes, and labor required for certain production in person-hours. This study applies statistical analyses and probability theories for plastering work, which represents a labor-intensive construction process. The goal of the research is to determine the probability of completion of the construction process based on monitoring the mean value of performance. By application of statistical analyses a decrease in the performance standard has been proved compared with the planned values given in the CONTEC database. The decrease in performance, which was also caused by the number of days with unfavorable climatic conditions and demonstrated by performing interval estimates based on the collection of statistical data, was later confirmed by a relative frequency test. The measures taken were in terms of establishing the required number of personnel capacities for complying with the construction schedule.

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“…The efficiency of the predictions improves as the execution of the project advances, to a point where after approximately 60% of the time of the planned duration has passed, it presents cost forecasts that fit the simulated costs with a 100% probability of occurrence. Under this criterion, EVM is an important tool that enables very efficient cost forecasts after approximately 60% of the period has passed, giving a suitable margin of time for decision making to correct deviations from the project budget [29]. Equation (7) uses the EVM criterion for cost forecasts that can be applied periodically during the execution of the project.…”

Section: Cost and Duration Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With regard to cost forecasts on the completion of complex construction projects in the hydropower sector, the study by Urgiles, Claver, and Sebastian [29] shows the efficiency of EVM applied to the case studies from the present work, indicating that the efficiency of the predictions improves as the execution of the projects progresses, to the point that after approximately 60% of the time of the planned duration has passed, the cost forecasts it presents fit the simulated costs with a 100% probability of occurrence.…”

Section: Fit Of Costs Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposal and Application of a Methodology to Improve the Control and Monitoring of Complex Hydroelectric Power Station Construction Projects

Urgilés¹,

Sebastián

Gil

2020

Applied Sciences

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All complex projects take place in environments of great uncertainty. Maintaining a monitoring and control system from the early stages of execution is a critical factor in the success of this type of project. Large hydroelectric power station construction projects are regarded as highly complex because they are affected by factors such as the risks inherent in a variety of fields of engineering, geology and the environment, the long execution times, and the large number of multidisciplinary activities to be carried out in parallel, among others. These types of projects are commonly affected by cost overruns and delays. This work develops a methodology for the monitoring and control of complex construction projects in the hydroelectric sector that enables a periodical calculation of metrics for physical progress, financial progress, and predictions for costs and durations on completion of the project. The verification of the efficiency of this methodology was based on stochastic simulation models applied to real projects in the hydropower sector. The results showed that the proposed methodology improved efficiency compared with existing traditional methodologies. The proposed methodology allows the simultaneous consideration of costs, deadlines, criticality, and risks of the activities of the analyzed projects and also incorporates multicriteria decision techniques to manage the influence of key aspects during the development of the project.

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Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Cited by 20 publications

References 25 publications

Time Connection of Subsequent Construction Processes Estimated by Statistical Method

Time Connection of Subsequent Construction Processes Estimated by Statistical Method

Determination of construction process duration based on labor productivity estimation: A case study

Proposal and Application of a Methodology to Improve the Control and Monitoring of Complex Hydroelectric Power Station Construction Projects

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