Modeling and Model Comparison for Industrial Production Index of Turkey, Brazil and G7 Countries

Abstract

In this study, it was aimed to modeling and model comparison for the industrial production index values of Turkey, Brazil and G7 countries among the years 1990-2017. The curve estimation methods (linear, quadratic, qubic, and hyperbolastic) and some non-linear time series models (Weibull, Negative Exponential, Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Von Bertalanffy, Richards) were used for modeling the longitudinal data of monthly industrial production index values. The most fitted Gompertz model for all three data sets was determined according to the criteria of goodness of fit (coefficient of determination, mean square error, Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion), using the process between 1990-2008 (up to the 2008 crisis). After the 2008-2009 crisis, Brazil and G7 countries' industrial production index values were well below their expected values. In contrast, Turkey's expected values and the actual values for the industrial production index have been fairly close. Considering these results, it can be said that Turkey was less affected in terms of the effects of the 2008-2009 economic crisis than other countries. Industrial production index values of Turkey at 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey in 2023, and other important dates in 2041 and 2050 were estimated to be 177.62, 353.49 and 485.63, respectively.