Modeling and forecasting the distribution of<i>Vibrio vulnificus</i>in Chesapeake Bay

Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, Matt; Brown, Christopher W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

doi:10.1111/jam.12624

Cited by 43 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The species was first isolated from the liver and kidney of cultured rose snapper on the western coast of Mexico (Gomez-Gil et al, 2008) and was more recently isolated from oysters in North Carolina waters under conditions when detection of V. vulnificus on CPC + agar was rare (Froelich et al, 2012). The frequency of detection by qPCR (0.68 in water and 0.21 in oysters among all sites) is comparable to recent studies which have reported detection frequencies between 0.21 and 0.80 in water and an inability to detect V. vulnificus in unseeded oyster homogenates (Wetz et al, 2008;Jacobs et al, 2010;Franco et al, 2012;Froelich et al, 2012). The frequency of detection by qPCR (0.68 in water and 0.21 in oysters among all sites) is comparable to recent studies which have reported detection frequencies between 0.21 and 0.80 in water and an inability to detect V. vulnificus in unseeded oyster homogenates (Wetz et al, 2008;Jacobs et al, 2010;Franco et al, 2012;Froelich et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Detection and differentiation of Vibrio vulnificus and V. sinaloensis in water and oysters of a Gulf of Mexico estuary

Staley

Chase

Harwood

2012

Environmental Microbiology

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Vibrio vulnificus is a potentially lethal human pathogen that occurs naturally in estuarine waters and shellfish. Vibrio vulnificus was quantified in water and oysters from Florida's Gulf Coast by plating on mCPC agar, enrichment and plating, and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Vibrio vulnificus was detected in 19%, 29%, and 97% of samples respectively by direct plating, qPCR, and enrichment. Only 8% of typical colonies from direct plating were confirmed by PCR for vvhA; others yielded no or atypically sized amplicons. Sequencing of the 16S rDNA of 16 vvhA-negative isolates with colony morphology typical of V. vulnificus identified 75% as V. sinaloensis. In vitro growth curves showed that V. sinaloensis grew more rapidly than V. vulnificus in seawater at temperatures ≤ 30°C. In contrast, the growth rate of V. vulnificus in alkaline peptone water was greater than that of V. sinaloensis, suggesting that these species can outcompete one another under conditions that are relevant to environmental parameters or regulatory monitoring regimes respectively. The virulence potential and ecology of V. sinaloensis are poorly understood; however, its phenotypic resemblance to V. vulnificus and the possibility that it could outcompete the pathogen in warm, estuarine waters argue for the need for a better understanding of this newly described Vibrio species.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Detection and differentiation of Vibrio vulnificus and V. sinaloensis in water and oysters of a Gulf of Mexico estuary

Staley

Chase

Harwood

2012

Environmental Microbiology

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“…Examples include models for species of Vibrio (Constantin de Magny et al, 2010;Froelich et al, 2013;Jacobs et al, 2014), HABs (Milroy et al, 2008;Anderson, 2009;Moore et al, 2009;Brown et al, 2013), and indicator bacteria (Nevers and Whitman, 2011). In many cases, such models have been used in hydrodynamic modeling systems or used in conjunction with remotely sensed data to provide short term predictions, or early warning (Phillips et al, 2007;Brown et al, 2013;Grimes et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first is a previously published statistical model relating probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus to SST and SSS (Jacobs et al, 2014). For the purpose of this exercise, salinity was held constant at 12 psu, or approximately optimal salinity for V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay (Jacobs et al, 2010(Jacobs et al, , 2014.…”

Section: Seasonal Shiftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Alaska, a 2004 outbreak of V. parahaemolyticus among cruise ship passengers was associated with an anomalous SST event pushing warm waters into Prince William Sound (McLaughlin et al, 2005). In the Chesapeake, several statistical models have been developed relating SST and other variables to Vibrio occurrence and abundance (Constantin de Magny et al, 2010;Jacobs et al, 2010Jacobs et al, , 2014 and have been used to demonstrate the impact of climate variability on local scale distribution (Banakar et al, 2012). By 2012, the annual number of cases of Vibrio infection had steadily risen in Chesapeake watershed states to nearly 100 (CDC_COVIS, 2014, MD, VA, and PA combined), and a burgeoning oyster aquaculture industry has raised much concern related to Vibrio control with increased summer harvest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Approaches such as these that provide decision support on climate change and health have been termed 'data mashups' (Fleming et al, 2014) and integrate different types and sources of data to better target management needs and promote the development of more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. To demonstrate these approaches, we employ previously developed empirical models relating the growth, abundance, or probability of occurrence of two species of Vibrio (V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus) and the harmful alga A. fundyense to environmental parameters that are sensitive to climate (USFDA, 2005;Jacobs et al, 2014;Bill et al, submitted for publication) to provide first order estimates of changes in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

Jacobs

Moore

Kunkel

et al. 2015

Climate Risk Management

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a b s t r a c tClimate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios. Ó 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). IntroductionThe most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provided unequivocal evidence for warming of the climate system. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are the highest in history, and have caused unprecedented warming (IPCC, 2014). During the period from 1880 to 2012, mean global land surface air temperatures have increased by 0.85°C with a greater rate of change in the period from 1970 to present (IPCC, 2014). Similarly, over the last four decades, surface waters of our oceans have warmed at a rate of 0.11°C per decade, and alterations in precipitation patterns have increased salinity in the Atlantic Ocean and decreased salinity in the Pacific and Southern Oceans (IPCC, 2014). From 1901 to 2010, mean global sea level has risen 0.19 m and the rate of ice loss from glaciers around the http://dx.

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Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

et al. 2017

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Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

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Modeling and forecasting the distribution ofVibrio vulnificusin Chesapeake Bay

Cited by 43 publications

References 85 publications

Detection and differentiation of Vibrio vulnificus and V. sinaloensis in water and oysters of a Gulf of Mexico estuary

Detection and differentiation of Vibrio vulnificus and V. sinaloensis in water and oysters of a Gulf of Mexico estuary

A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

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