Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop sex-specific mortality estimation models using historical mortality data for Sri Lanka, based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee and Carter (1992 2006-2008.

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Using the Lee-Carter Model for Indian Population Based on Decade-wise Data

“…2012), the Nordic countries (Kossi et. al., 2006), Sri Lanka (Aberathna et. al., 2014) and Thai (Yasungnoen and Sattayatham, 2016).…”

“…Conclusions are reported in Section 8. for the ages 0, 1-4 and 5-80 (quinquennial) and 80+. From these life tables, we have derived decade-wise age group specific central death rates as (1) where, denotes the number of deaths in the age group during decade . denotes the average number of persons in the age group during decade .…”

Application of a power-exponential function-based model to mortality rates forecasting

“…Lee and Carter developed their approach specifically for U.S. mortality data, 1900-1989 and forecasted (over a 50-year forecast horizon), 1990-2065. However, the method has now been applied to mortality data from many countries and time periods, e.g., the United States (Lee and Carter 1992), Chile (Lee and Rofman 1994), China (Jiang 1995), Japan (Wilmoth 1996), the seven most economically developed nations (G7) (Tuljapurkar, Li, and Boe 2000), India (Chavhan and Shinde 2016), the Nordic countries (Koissi, Shapiro, and Högnäs 2006), Sri Lanka (Aberathna et al 2014), and Thailand (Yasungnoen and Sattayatham 2015).…”

Lee-Carter Modeling for Mortality in Indonesia With a Bayesian Approach

“…Lee-Carter introduced a method for modeling and predicting mortality (in this case was ASDR) with a stochastic approach (then this method is known as the Lee-Carter model [2]. The Lee-Carter model has been successfully applied to mortality forecasting in several countries, including Norway [3], Malaysia [4], Indonesia [5] [6], the US [2], Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) [7], Sweden [8], Peru [9], India [10], Hungary [11], Sri Lanka [12] and Mauritius [13]. Several studies that have already been mentioned previously refer to the frequency approach in the parameter estimation process.…”