Modeling and control of COVID-19: A short-term forecasting in the context of India

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, due to SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), originated in Wuhan, China and is now a global pandemic. The unavailability of vaccines, delays in diagnosis of the disease, and lack of proper treatment resources are the leading causes of the rapid spread of COVID-19. The world is now facing a rapid loss of human lives and socioeconomic status. As a mathematical model can provide some real pictures of the disease spread, enabling better prevention measures. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model to describe the COVID-19 pandemic. We have derived the threshold parameter basic reproduction number, and a detailed sensitivity analysis of this most crucial threshold parameter has been performed to determine the most sensitive indices. Finally, the model is applied to describe COVID-19 scenarios in India, the second-largest populated country in the world, and some of its vulnerable states. We also have short-term forecasting of COVID-19, and we have observed that controlling only one model parameter can significantly reduce the disease’s vulnerability.

The effectiveness of contact tracing in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak: A model-based analysis in the context of India

“…There is also a direct inflow from susceptible class due to government preventive policies. The possibility of relapse or re-exposer of the recovered is not known till now and negligible cases are recorded [44] . Also, here we are concerned about the short term dynamics of the disease.…”

Complex dynamics of a fractional-order SIR system in the context of COVID-19

“…Noting that isolation is a good measure to control the disease, Hellewell et al [14] have used the operative techniques of COVID-19 diseases using separation. In the recent works, Mandal et al [25,27] have constructed and analyzed a mathematical model on the COVID-19 in the pandemic scenario of three states of India. In other recent work, a balance between lockdown and compliance to investigate the COVID-19 scenes has been proposed by Zegarra et al [2].…”

“…In other recent work, a balance between lockdown and compliance to investigate the COVID-19 scenes has been proposed by Zegarra et al [2]. Some more theoretical works on COVID-19 can be found in [25,27,34].…”

An operationally implementable model for predicting the effects of an infectious disease on a comprehensive regional healthcare system

“…At the onset of the pandemic, the Clinical Analytics team was tasked with providing a reliable, scalable solution relevant to the local epidemiological situation [ 1 ]. While abundant literature exists on the theoretical aspects of the problem [ 2 – 21 ], few specific worked examples that could be used by practitioners for immediate implementation are widely available. For a concise but comprehensive description of challenges facing a researcher attempting to develop a workable model see, e.g., [ 22 ].…”