The effectiveness of contact tracing in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak: A model-based analysis in the context of India

Abstract

The ongoing pandemic situation due to COVID-19 originated from the Wuhan city, China affects the world in an unprecedented scale. Unavailability of totally effective vaccination and proper treatment regimen forces to employ a non-pharmaceutical way of disease mitigation. The world is in desperate demand of useful control intervention to combat the deadly virus. This manuscript introduces a new mathematical model that addresses two different diagnosis efforts and isolation of confirmed cases. The basic reproductive number, is inspected, and the model’s dynamical characteristics are also studied. We found that with the condition the disease can be eliminated from the system. Further, we fit our proposed model system with cumulative confirmed cases of six Indian states, namely, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Delhi and West Bengal. Sensitivity analysis carried out to scale the impact of different parameters in determining the size of the epidemic threshold of . It reveals that unidentified symptomatic cases result in an underestimation of whereas, diagnosis based on new contact made by confirmed cases can gradually reduce the size of and hence helps to mitigate the ongoing disease. An optimal control problem is framed using a control variable projecting the effectiveness of diagnosis based on traced contacts made by a confirmed COVID patient. It is noticed that optimal contact tracing effort reduces effectively over time.

An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment

“…This kind of simulation provides, among other things, to local decision-makers elements of better anticipation of health needs (Mahmood et al, 2020;Das et al, 2021) or of communication on the interest of barrier gestures aimed at the population (see for example Steven, 2020 andBayette &Monticelli, 2020 as popular science articles, or Régis et al, 2020a,b used by local media in Radio Caraibes Internationale, 2021. In this work, we propose to use fuzzy sets, aggregation operators, and MAS to simulate the effect of non-compliance with barrier gestures by the entire population, after the lockdown has been lifted.…”

Fractal–fractional operator for COVID-19 (Omicron) variant outbreak with analysis and modeling

“…individually. Few studies on COVID 19 dynamics from different stances can be found in [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] . A fractional order pandemic model is developed to examine the spread of COVID-19 with and without Omicron variant and its relationship with heart attack using real data from the United Kingdom [24] .…”