Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks

Tamura, Hiroyuki; Yamamoto, Keiji; Tomiyama, Shinji; Hatono, Itsuo

doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(99)00247-7

Cited by 75 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Some early work was done on developing decision models for mitigating natural disaster risks. For example, reference [12] showed that a value function under risk was an appropriate approach to model and analyse a decision making process involving low probability, high consequence events, such as earthquakes. Reference [13] described a study to develop tools to analyse and measure the costs of disaster mitigation by exploring how cost-benefit analysis, environmental impact assessment and related methodologies can be expanded to consider the risks emanating from natural hazards.…”

Section: Decision Making Regarding Disaster Risk Mitigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

Honert¹

2016

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Economic losses from natural disasters pose significant challenges to communities and to the insurance industry. Natural disaster mitigation aims to reduce the threat to people and assets from natural perils. Good decisions relating to hazard risk mitigation require judgments both about the scientific and financial issues involved, i.e., the efficacy of some intervention, and the ethical or value principles to adopt in allocating resources. A framework for selecting a set of mitigation options within a limited budget is developed. Project selection about natural disaster mitigation options needs to trade off benefits offered by alternative investments (e.g., fatalities and injuries avoided, potential property and infrastructure losses prevented, safety concerns of citizens, etc.) against the costs of investment. Such costs include capital and on-going operational costs, as well as intangible costs, such as the impact of the project on the visual landscape or the loss of societal cohesion in the event of the relocation of part of a community. Furthermore, dollar costs of any potential project will need to be defined within some prescribed budget and time frame. Taking all of these factors into account, this paper develops a framework for good natural hazard mitigation decision making and selection.

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Section: Decision Making Regarding Disaster Risk Mitigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

Honert¹

2016

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“…Huang [21] applied three risk analysis models of natural disaster into practical decision-making problems. On the basis of the utility function theory, Tamura [22] presented the risk analysis and decision model for natural disasters. At present, research on social risks mainly focuses on natural disaster itself.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Society Risk Evolution Mechanism and Counter Measures in Severe Emergency Infectious Disease — in the Case of H7N9 Avian Influenza

Xu¹,

Cai²,

Wang³

2015

JRACR

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In this paper, the evolution and control of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease will be analyzed and studied. Firstly, the evolution chain of society risks caused by severe emergency infectious disease is constructed to analyze the evolution rule of society risks and identify the essential factors in counter measures. Then, the system dynamics model is established and employed to simulate the effects of society risk control with various countermeasures. Finally, based on the simulation results, a conclusion is drawn: improving medical treatment capacity, strengthening quarantine level under epidemic situation and enhancing the effective ness of dealing with public opinions are effective in controlling society risks. Especially when the three aspects mentioned above are promoted at the same time, the society risk control can achieve a more notable effect.

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“…Sorensen (2000) mentioned that the likelihood of people responding to a warning is not diminished by what has come to be labeled the ''cry-wolf'' syndrome if the basis of the false alarm is understood, although repetitive false alarms may decrease response. Tamura et al (2000) showed that a value function under risk is useful for modeling low-probability, high-consequence events like earthquakes for which expected utility theory is inadequate. They also showed that using the value function under risk is an appropriate approach for modeling and analyzing decision-making regarding low-probability, high-consequence events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

Uchida

2012

European Journal of Operational Research

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This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect "cry wolf" syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the "cry wolf" syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model.

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Modeling and analysis of decision making problem for mitigating natural disaster risks

Cited by 75 publications

References 3 publications

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

Research on Society Risk Evolution Mechanism and Counter Measures in Severe Emergency Infectious Disease — in the Case of H7N9 Avian Influenza

A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

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