Model Seismology

Seismic hazard maps based on Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment for China Seismic Experimental Site and adjacent areas

“…where the magnitude of MCE is obtained by summing to the maximum observed or estimated magnitude (M max ) the product of the global standard deviation σ M and a safety factor γ EM . In CSES case, if considering γ EM = 2.0 and σ M = 1/4 (Båth, 1973;Panza and Bela, 2020), we get γ EM σ M = 0.5. Gorshkov et al (2003) defined a series of earthquake-prone segments (nodes) prone to M ≥ 8.2 in the transasian seismic belt outside its Alpine zone.…”

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) empowered by Time‐Dependent Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (TD‐NDSHA)

“…The alerted region for seismic hazard at annual scale, as shown in Figure 1, was determined by a multi‐disciplinary approach in which experts' opinions played an important role (e.g., Wu, 1997; Zhu & Wu, 2007). The expected magnitude of earthquakes was ~7; hence it is natural to consider the magnitude 7.0 ± 0.5, where 0.5 corresponds to twice the global standard error of magnitude estimate (0.2–0.3) as per Båth (1973) and Bormann et al (2007). Within this region, two strong earthquakes occurred in 2014 3 , 3 August Zhaotong earthquake ( M S 6.5, M W 6.2), and 22 November Kangding earthquake ( M S 6.3, M W 5.9).…”