Model of business processes of delivery of goods during martial law

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the difference in the business-processes of the goods delivery during martial law and to develop an optimization model of the business processes of the supply of goods in these conditions. Methodology. The methods used are: system analysis to establish the fact that the main risk of supplying goods under martial law is the integral operational risk; content analysis for detailed impact of operational risk; comparative analysis to establish the fact that the risk can provoke crisis in the supply chain in the conditions of war; abstracting to establish the fact that there is significant probability of the formation of domino effect in related areas of activity; inductions and deductions regarding the importance of setting the rate of risk for forecasting and planning of business processes; analysis and synthesis to develop a model algorithm; mathematical formalization for the formation of a program trigger for matching the rate of risk change and the rate of the business cycle. Findings. It is proven that the influence of risk in dynamic conditions can have a character of domino effect both in the main and in adjacent areas of activity. Therefore, it is important not only to quantify the risk, but also to determine its rate of change. Inadequate adaptability of enterprise management to external conditions is established. It is indicated that the reliability of goods supply is the main criterion of efficiency in the conditions of martial law. Originality. An optimization model of the business processes of the goods supply in the conditions of martial law is developed. An indicator for changing the forms and methods of work while comparing the rate of change in risk and the rate of the business cycle is proposed. Practical value. The proposed model of business processes for the supply of goods under martial law conditions and an indicator of the comparison of the rate of risk change and the rate of the business cycle can be widely used by scientists and practitioners.