Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

Мохов, И. И.; Bezverkhnii, V. A.; Елисеев, А. В.; Карпенко, А. А.

doi:10.1134/s0010952508040114

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The same applies to WDR and SDR, but the follows the recovery of grand solar minimum. We call the scenarios "weak" and "strong" for clear distinction, though it must be noted that both scenarios actually represent stronger irradiance reductions than those generally assumed in previous studies (Chiodo et al, 2016;Ineson et al, 2015;IPCC, 2013;Maycock et al, 2015;Meehl et al, 2013;Mokhov et al, 2008). Previous estimates regarding the TSI decrease during the Maunder Minimum compared to present-day values range from somewhere close to present 11-year solar minima (Schrijver et al, 2011), to reductions of 0.15 to 0.3 % below present solar minima (Foukal et al, 2011) all the way to more than 0.4 % below present solar minima derived by Shapiro et al (2011) and applied here in the SD and SDR scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of studies were conducted to assess if a potential future grand solar minimum would lead to a possible reduction in the projected global warming. Mokhov et al (2008) performed 21st century simulations with different solar, volcanic and anthropogenic forcings. Their analysis of the response of global mean nearsurface temperature to various solar scenarios showed that solar activity variations of up to 2 W m −2 impose only small changes in the surface temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m −2 , respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m −2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We call the scenarios "weak" and "strong" for clear distinction, though it must be noted that both scenarios actually represent stronger irradiance reductions than those generally assumed previous studies Maycock et al, 2015;Meehl et al, 2013;Mokhov et al, 2008) and by the IPCC. As described by Meehl et al (2013), previous estimates regarding the TSI decrease during the Maunder Minimum compared to present-day values range from somewhere close to present 11-year solar minima, to reductions of 0.15% to 0.3% below present solar minima all 5 the way to more than 0.4% below present solar minima derived by Shapiro et al (2011) and applied here in the SD and SDR scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…A number of studies were conducted to estimate if a potential future grand solar minimum would slow or even cancel global warming. Mokhov et al (2008) performed 21 st century simulations with different solar, volcanic and anthropogenic forcings. Their analysis of the response of global mean near-20 surface temperature to various solar scenarios showed that solar activity variations of up to 2 W/m 2 impose only small changes in the surface temperature.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov²,

Anet³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21 st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21 st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-10 MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000 -2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W/m 2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also 15 projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15% of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21 st and around 25% at the end of 22 nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8%, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from 20 anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22 nd century or later.

show abstract

“…We use the coupled chemistry-climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM (Stenke et al, 2013;Muthers et al, 2014), which consists of the atmospheric model coupled to the chemistry module and the ocean model. The atmospheric component is a general circulation model ECHAM5.4, a spectral model based on primitive equations with temperature, vorticity, divergence, surface pressure, humidity and cloud water as prognostic variables (Manzini et al, 2006;Roeckner, 2003;Roeckner et al, 2006).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Author's comments

Arsenović¹

2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m −2 , respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m −2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from an-thropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

show abstract

Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

Cited by 10 publications

References 8 publications

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Author's comments

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About