Model‐based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

Abstract

Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

“…Recent research has evaluated the effect of climate change on threatened plant species in nature reserves using ecological niche models (ENMs; Yu et al , 2014 ; Wan et al , 2014 ; Wang et al , 2015 ). ENMs are a popular tool used to model climate suitability or potential distributions of plant species based on species occurrence data and environmental variables across current species ranges ( Elith et al , 2011 ; Merow, Smith & Silander , 2013 ).…”

Historical and contemporary climate legacy of the large-scale distributional patterns of plant richness across different taxonomic levels: An assessment of protected areas in China

“…Based on our results that the historical climate can shape the large-scale distributional pattern of plant richness, we predict that it will take a long time for the plant diversity in China to recover if the plant richness is damaged. Furthermore, it will be necessary to use large-scale data from protected areas to assess the effects of climate change on plant diversity in protected areas around the world (Araújo et al 2011, Wan et al 2014, Keppel et al 2015, Wan et al 2018. Thus, plant diversity data from protected areas could be beneficial not only for scientists but also for decision makers and practitioners in other fields (Araújo et al 2011, Wan et al 2016, Zhang et al 2017.…”

Incorporating climate change into spatial conservation prioritisation: A review

“…(Table 2; Cross et al 2012. We found some approaches which combined increasing connectivity with other prioritisation aims, such as Wan et al (2014), who prioritise for current and future distributions of an endangered East-Asian tree species, while ensuring connectivity between these priority areas in order to facilitate gene flow. Approaches such as these, which combine connectivity with other prioritisation goals, are more likely to effectively conserve a large proportion of biodiversity.…”