Model-based analysis of decarbonising the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050

Capros, Pantélis; Tasios, Nikolaos; Vita, Alessia De; Mantzos, Leonidas; Paroussos, Leonidas

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2012.06.003

Cited by 83 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…In particular, for Europe the GAINS model has benefited from a peer review process in the run up to the policy assessment process leading to the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol and the Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution of the EU, for both of which the GAINS model was the modeling tool of choice. Many parameters were directly taken or derived from the PRIMES model [59]. For the India and China parts IIASA had subcontracted local experts to review the above methodology and to provide updated parameters.…”

Section: Other Extraction (Ext)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive Industries: A Macroeconomic Analysis for Europe, China and India

et al. 2017

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Industrial processes currently contribute 40% to global CO 2 emissions and therefore substantial increases in industrial energy efficiency are required for reaching the 2 • C target. We assess the macroeconomic effects of deploying low carbon technologies in six energy intensive industrial sectors (Petroleum, Iron and Steel, Non-metallic Minerals, Paper and Pulp, Chemicals, and Electricity) in Europe, China and India in 2030. By combining the GAINS technology model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model, we find that output in energy intensive industries declines in Europe by 6% in total, while output increases in China by 11% and in India by 13%. The opposite output effects emerge because low carbon technologies lead to cost savings in China and India but not in Europe. Consequently, the competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved in China and India relative to Europe, leading to higher exports to Europe. In all regions, the decarbonization of electricity plays the dominant role for mitigation. We find a rebound effect in China and India, in the size of 42% and 34% CO 2 reduction, respectively, but not in Europe. Our results indicate that the range of considered low-carbon technology options is not competitive in the European industrial sectors. To foster breakthrough low carbon technologies and maintain industrial competitiveness, targeted technology policy is therefore needed to supplement carbon pricing.

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Section: Other Extraction (Ext)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive Industries: A Macroeconomic Analysis for Europe, China and India

et al. 2017

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“…In the EU, the trade deficit in energy products in 2012 was €421 billion (3·3% EU GDP), 273 and is projected to rise to €600 billion (in 2010 euros) by 2050, as the EU's dependence on foreign fossil fuels increases. 274 Low-carbon investments that reduce the need to import fossil fuels are macroeconomically beneficial, with the value of these trade effects in the future being uncertain and dependent on the price of oil and other fossil fuels. Such uncertainty is itself a cost, which is amplified when allied with price volatility-a common characteristic of fossil-fuel markets.…”

Section: Macroeconomic Implications Of Mitigation and Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

2015

Br Dent J

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Executive summaryThe 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multi-disciplinary and international in nature, with strong collabor-ation between academic centres in Europe and China.The central finding from the Commission's work is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. The key messages from the Commission are summarised below, accompanied by ten underlying recommendations to accelerate action in the next 5 years.The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human healthThe implications of climate change for a global population of 9 billion people threatens to undermine the last half century o f gains in development and global health. The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease vectors, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health.Keeping the global average temperature rise to less than 2°C to avoid the risk of potentially catastrophic climate change impacts requires total anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to be kept below 2900 billion tonnes (GtCO2) by the end of the century. As of 2011, total emissions since 1870 were a little over half of this, with current trends expected to exceed 2900 GtCO2 in the next 15-30 years. High-end emissions projection scenarios show global average warming of 2·6-4·8°C by the end of the century, with all their regional amplification and attendant impacts.Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century Given the potential of climate change to reverse the health gains from economic development, and the health co-benefits that accrue from actions for a sustainable economy, tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of this century. Many mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change are "no-regret" options, which lead to direct reductions in the burden of ill-health, enhance community resilience, alleviate poverty, and address global inequity. Benefits are realised by ensuring that countries are unconstrained by climate change, enabling them to achieve better health and wellbeing for their populations. These strategies will also reduce pressures on national health budgets, delivering potentially large cost savings, and enable investments in stronger, more resilient health systems. The Commission recommends that over the next 5 years, governments:1 Invest in climate change and public health research, monitoring, and surveillance to ensure a better understanding of the adaptation needs and the potential health co-b...

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“…The future reference scenarios for Denmark, Portugal and France are based on the DG-TREN forecast for 2030 issued in [29], as well as the 2009 STOA report "Future energy systems in Europe" [28]. In order to illustrate the forecasts for the future reference scenario, key figures of the energy systems of the years 2005 and the future reference scenario are compared: The final energy demand in the future reference scenario with regard to fuels is assumed to remain largely constant for all countries; decreasing by 3 pct.…”

Section: System Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy schemes, operational strategies and system integration of residential co-generation fuel cells

Pade

Schröder

Münster

et al. 2013

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

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This study presents a holistic approach for the commercialisation of fuel cells for stationary applications. We focus our analyses on microCHP based on SOFC units fired with natural gas. We analyse the interaction of operational strategies under different ownership arrangements, required support levels and system integration aspects. The operational strategies, support mechanisms and ownership arrangements have been identified through actor analyses involving experts from Denmark, France and Portugal. With regard to operational strategies, the actor analyses led us to distinguishing between a heat-driven strategy, with and without time-differentiated tariffs, and an electricity-price driven strategy for the operation as a virtual power plant. The corresponding support schemes identified cover feed-in tariffs, net metering and feed-in premiums. Additionally, the interplay of the microCHP units with the national energy systems has been analysed. Our main findings are that net metering ould be an appropriate tool to support FC based microCHP in Denmark, hereas a price premium would be the preferable tool in France and Portugal. w w

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Model-based analysis of decarbonising the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050

Cited by 83 publications

References 2 publications

The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive Industries: A Macroeconomic Analysis for Europe, China and India

The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive Industries: A Macroeconomic Analysis for Europe, China and India

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Policy schemes, operational strategies and system integration of residential co-generation fuel cells

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