Mode choice modeling for long-distance travel

Abstract

With the ongoing debates from Florida to California and throughout the country concerning the benefits of high-speed rail, there is a renewed interest in intercity mode choice modeling. The investments for improving long-distance travel are substantial and may have serious impacts on travel demand, the environment and the economy. As such, alternatives for improving longdistance travel require careful evaluation before decisions are made on the form and design of long-distance travel infrastructure. A new nested multinomial logit mode-choice model has been developed that is sensitive to travel costs, distance, transit station accessibility, service frequency, number of transfers and parking costs. On the auto side the model considers the modes drive-alone and shared-ride with 2, 3 and 4 or more passengers. The transit side models regional bus, rail and air as modal options. To explore the model sensitivities, scenarios on increased gasoline prices and improved bus service are described. After a short introduction, the state-of-the-art of mode choice modeling is reviewed. 44 Section 3 explains how total travel demand is generated, and section 4 describes the mode choice model developed in this paper. Section 5 describes the application to the North Carolina Statewide Transportation Model (NCSTM) and section 6 shows the scenario application. The paper ends with conclusions and future1. INTRODUCTION In the last few years, a new interest in mode choice analysis has risen due to the controversy regarding the implementation of high-speed rail in different parts of the U.S. Analysis tools, however, have not caught up with this new demand in transportation modeling. The vast majority of mode choice models developed over the last few decades have been implemented for urban models with a focus on short-distance travel, where modal availability is different from longdistance travel. The travel behavior in long-distance travel is quite different, too, as people tend to be more familiar with modal options for short-distance travel than for long-distance travel. In addition, the composition of travelers differs. While short-distance use of transit is dominated by commuters, long-distance transit modes (particularly rail and air) are heavily used for pleasure trips as well as by business travelers. Given the fact that long-distance travelers tend to stay longer at their destination, travel time tends to be a less dominant factor in mode choice than in short-distance travel. Investments for improving long-distance travel often are tremendous. Adding a lane to an existing highway or even building a new highway may cost millions of dollars, just as adding a new rail line or improving the speed on an existing rail line may be cost-intensive. Environmental impacts may be serious, as increased auto traffic or air travel may increase gaseous emissions and noise levels substantially. Finally, the economic impact may be significant as well. According to Krugman [1], more accessible regions are ceteris paribus economically more successfu...

Travel Model Blind Spots: Importance of Understanding Special Markets Related to Visitors

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Investigating Dominant Trip Distance for Intercity Passenger Transport Mode Using Large-Scale Location-Based Service Data

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