Misperception of Chance, Conjunction, Belief in the Paranormal and Reality Testing: A Reappraisal

Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Rowley, Kevin

doi:10.1002/acp.3057

Cited by 39 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In general, this research on psychic beliefs is consistent with studies linking other kinds of paranormal beliefs to less analytic or critical thinking (see Gervais & Norenzayan, 2012;Pennycook, Cheryne, Sleli, Koehler, & Fugelsang, 2012), including less critical evaluation of hypothetical arguments (Stanovich & West, 1998;Svedholm & Lindeman, 2012) or an increased likelihood of endorsing conspiracy theories that most people reject based on careful scrutiny of the evidence (Bruder, Haffke, Neave, Nouripanah, & Imhoff, 2013;Lobato, Mendoza, Sims, & Chin, 2014). Although group differences in analytical thinking and logic tasks have not always been observed (compare Dagnall, Drinkwater, Parker, & Rowley, 2014, to Rogers, Davis, & Fisk, 2009, these represent some of the most reliable cognitive difference between paranormal believers and skeptics observed to date.…”

supporting

confidence: 84%

Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis

Gray

Gallo

2015

Mem Cogn

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Belief in paranormal psychic phenomena is widespread in the United States, with over a third of the population believing in extrasensory perception (ESP). Why do some people believe, while others are skeptical? According to the cognitive differences hypothesis, individual differences in the way people process information about the world can contribute to the creation of psychic beliefs, such as differences in memory accuracy (e.g., selectively remembering a fortune teller's correct predictions) or analytical thinking (e.g., relying on intuition rather than scrutinizing evidence). While this hypothesis is prevalent in the literature, few have attempted to empirically test it. Here, we provided the most comprehensive test of the cognitive differences hypothesis to date. In 3 studies, we used online screening to recruit groups of strong believers and strong skeptics, matched on key demographics (age, sex, and years of education). These groups were then tested in laboratory and online settings using multiple cognitive tasks and other measures. Our cognitive testing showed that there were no consistent group differences on tasks of episodic memory distortion, autobiographical memory distortion, or working memory capacity, but skeptics consistently outperformed believers on several tasks tapping analytical or logical thinking as well as vocabulary. These findings demonstrate cognitive similarities and differences between these groups and suggest that differences in analytical thinking and conceptual knowledge might contribute to the development of psychic beliefs. We also found that psychic belief was associated with greater life satisfaction, demonstrating benefits associated with psychic beliefs and highlighting the role of both cognitive and noncognitive factors in understanding these individual differences.

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supporting

confidence: 84%

Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis

Gray

Gallo

2015

Mem Cogn

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“…Evaluating Rogers et al's findings, Dagnall et al () concluded that there was no compelling evidence to support the notion that conjunction fallacy was a major factor associated with the development and maintenance of paranormal beliefs. More plausibly and consistent with the extant evidence is the possibility that believers susceptibility to conjunction error arises from their proneness to misperception of randomness (Tversky & Kahneman, , , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Several studies report positive associations between probability misjudgement and belief in the paranormal (Blackmore & Troscianko, ; Bressan, ; Brugger, Landis, & Regard, ; Brugger & Taylor, ; Dagnall, Drinkwater, Parker, & Rowley, ; Dagnall, Parker, & Munley, ). Seminally, Blackmore and Troscianko () observed that non‐believers (goats) outperformed psi believers (sheep) on tasks requiring judgements of probability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Noting the inconsistent nature of conjunction findings, Dagnall et al () investigated further the degree to which specific probabilistic biases (perception of randomness, base rate, conjunction fallacy and probability) were associated with belief in the paranormal and proneness to reality testing deficits. Consistent with Rogers et al (, ), both standard and paranormal conjunctions were included.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is tentative evidence to suggest that these differences may influence susceptibility to heuristic bias. For example, Dagnall et al () observed that although perception of randomness correlated weakly with both NAP and TPB, conjunction correlated only TPB. This finding was consistent with other related work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Misperception of Chance, Conjunction, Framing Effects and Belief in the Paranormal: A Further Evaluation

Dagnall

Drinkwater

Denovan

et al. 2016

Applied Cognitive Psychology

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Studies exploring relationships between belief in the paranormal and vulnerability to cognitive bias suggest that believers are liable to misperception of chance and conjunction fallacy. Research investigating misperception of chance has produced consistent findings, whilst work on conjunction fallacy is less compelling. Evidence indicates also that framing biases within a paranormal context can increase believers' susceptibility. The present study, using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling, examined the contribution of each bias to belief in the paranormal and assessed the merits of previous research. Alongside, the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale, participants completed standard and paranormal framed perception of randomness and conjunction problems. Perception of randomness was more strongly associated with belief in the paranormal than conjunction fallacy. Inherent methodological issues limited the usefulness of framing manipulations; presenting problems within a paranormal context weakened their predictive power.

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Paranormal Believers' Susceptibility to Confirmatory Versus Disconfirmatory Conjunctions

Rogers

Fisk

Lowrie

2016

Applied Cognitive Psychology

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SummaryThis study examines paranormal believers' susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy for confirmatory versus non‐confirmatory conjunctive events. Members of the UK public (N = 207) read 16 hypothetical vignettes before judging the likelihood that each constituent and their conjunction would (co) occur. Event type (paranormal versus non‐paranormal), outcome type (confirming versus disconfirming) and level of paranormal belief (in either extrasensory perception, psychokinesis or life after death)—plus relevant interaction terms—were entered into a linear mixed model analysis. As hypothesised, paranormal belief was associated with more conjunction errors regardless of event type with, in general, more errors made for confirmatory over disconfirmatory conjunctions. These trends existed for extrasensory perception and psychokinesis believers with those for life after death believers approaching significance. Consistent with Crupi and Tentori's Confirmation–Theoretical Framework, current findings suggest that paranormal believers are prone to a generic and confirmatory conjunction fallacy. Theoretical implications, methodological limitations and future research ideas are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Misperception of Chance, Conjunction, Belief in the Paranormal and Reality Testing: A Reappraisal

Cited by 39 publications

References 40 publications

Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis

Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis

Misperception of Chance, Conjunction, Framing Effects and Belief in the Paranormal: A Further Evaluation

Paranormal Believers' Susceptibility to Confirmatory Versus Disconfirmatory Conjunctions

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