Misaggregation Explains Conservative Inference About Normally Distributed Populations

Wheeler, Gloria E.; Edwards, Ward

doi:10.21236/ada016829

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In line with our predictions, subjects' used three times as many certainty responses with the odds version of the questionnaire and these responses were abysmally calibrated. This result extends the findings of DuCharme (1969), Phillips and Edwards (1966) and Wheeler and Edwards (1975), which we discussed earlier, to studies of calibration.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…This result extends the findings of DuCharme (1969), Phillips and Edwards (1966) and Wheeler and Edwards (1975), which we discussed earlier, to studies of calibration.…”

Section: Vol 7 Iss Nosupporting

confidence: 91%

“…However, relatively little attention has been paid in the literature to the question of whether there is a possible response mode bias, i.e., if probability estimates derived by different methods for the same event are inconsistent, which method should be taken as the true index of degree of belief? Several researchers have shown that responses based on odds are more extreme than those expressed as probabilities (Du Charme, 1969;Phillips and Edwards, 1966;Wheeler and Edwards, 1975). But as Wallsten and Budescu (1983) note 'It is an open question as to whether one response mode gets closer to true opinion, or indeed whether opinion actually varies with response mode ' (p. 160).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The consistency, coherence and calibration of holistic, decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

Wright

Saunders

Ayton

1988

Journal of Forecasting

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In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not closely related as we anticipated. Twenty-nine of our thirty-six subjects were better calibrated in point probabilities than in odds and our subjects were, in general more coherent using point probabilities than odds forecasts. Contrary to our expectations we found very little difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts. This result is evidence against the 'divide-and-conquer' rationale underlying most applications of normative decision theory. In addition, our recompositions of marginal and conditional assessments into compound forecasts were no better calibrated or resolved than their holistic counterparts.These findings convey two implications for forecasting. First, untrained judgemental forecasters should use point probabilities in preference to odds. Second, judgemental forecasts of complex compound probabilities may be as well assessed holistically as they are using methods of decomposition and recomposition. In addition, our study provides a paradigm for further studies of the relationship between consistency, coherence and validity in judgemental probability forecasting. KEY WORDS Probability Judgements Judgemental ForecastingCalibration Cross-impact AnalysisJudgemental probabilities are prime inputs to many management decision-aiding technologies such as decision analysis, cross-impact analysis and fault-tree analysis. These subjective probabilities are, essentially, probability forecasts of the likelihood of occurrence of future events. Psychological studies of subjective probability estimation have tended to involve

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…This result extends the findings of DuCharme (1969), Phillips and Edwards (1966) and Wheeler and Edwards (1975), which we discussed earlier, to studies of calibration.…”

Section: Vol 7 Iss Nosupporting

confidence: 91%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The consistency, coherence and calibration of holistic, decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

Wright

Saunders

Ayton

1988

Journal of Forecasting

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“…On the other hand, it is not entirely a specific phenomenon based on subjects' misunderstanding of the judgment task. The study of what task characteristics bring about conservatism (Wheeler and Edwards, 1975) therefore still seems to be of importance--perhaps in particular if one could obtain detailed information about how subjects interpret their task and what they do. Otherwise, this line of research will continue to suffer from uncertainties as to the generality of the phenomena investigated and their meaning.…”

Section: Psychological and Statistical Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Strength of belief and risk

Sjöber

1979

Policy Sci

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The purpose of this paper is to review work on subjective probability and strength of belief, in particular with reference to situations involving a high degree of risk. Work concerned mostly with cognitive limitations and shortcomings is discussed and some implications for societal responses to risky technology are offered. It is concluded that there is, in the literature on subjective probability, a lack of work on small probabilities and on the emotional influence of belief formation to be expected in situations that are related to large social values.

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“…Such a consideration does not hold true when using log-odds. For some psycholgical work which lends support to this theory see Wheeler and Edwards (1975). In this chapter we examine the computational consequences of these assumptions, and look at possible choices for the W matrix, together with justifications of these choices.…”

Section: The Choice Of Metricmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative Frameworks for the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments

Freeling¹

1980

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Misaggregation Explains Conservative Inference About Normally Distributed Populations

Cited by 4 publications

References 16 publications

The consistency, coherence and calibration of holistic, decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

The consistency, coherence and calibration of holistic, decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

Strength of belief and risk

Alternative Frameworks for the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments

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