Mining in space could spur sustainable growth

Abstract

Growth models with resources and environmental externalities typically assume that planet Earth is a closed economy. However, private firms like Blue Origin and SpaceX have reduced the cost of rocket launches by a factor of 20 over the last decade. What if these costs continue to decline, making mining from asteroids or the moon feasible? What would be the implications for economic growth and the environment? This paper provides stylized facts about cost trends, geology, and the environmental impact of mining on Earth and potentially in Space. We extend a neoclassical growth model to investigate the transition from mining on Earth to Space. We find that such a transition could potentially allow for continued growth of metal use, while limiting environmental and social costs on Earth. Acknowledging the high uncertainty around the topic, our paper provides a starting point for research on how Space mining could contribute to sustainable growth on Earth.

Space exploration and economic growth: New issues and horizons

“…Ref. 42 studies these questions against the backdrop of the ongoing clean energy transition on Earth. The clean energy transition could lead to substantial increases in the demand for certain critical minerals, but increased mining activity required to meet these demands will also increase environmental degradation on Earth.…”

“…Ref. 42 models this trade-off and identifies characteristics of optimal space mining transition paths. The authors find that a transition of mining from Earth to space could allow for continued growth of metal use on Earth while limiting environmental and social costs.…”

“…Third, although space exploration has the potential to boost future economic growth and scientific progress ( 24 , 37 ), it comes at a time of increasing global income and wealth inequality ( 49 ) and unprecedented climate-driven disruption ( 50 – 53 ). While the transition to space mining may help meet ambitious climate goals without reducing economic growth ( 42 ), this transition may disrupt production patterns, potentially impacting workers in mining-dependent countries. Research on mechanisms to encourage innovation and dynamism in space while ensuring equitable economic benefits can help identify positive pathways for space exploration.…”