Military conflict and the rise of urban Europe

Dincecco, Mark; Onorato, Massimiliano Gaetano

doi:10.1007/s10887-016-9129-4

Cited by 63 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…With the exception of Jedwab, Christiaensen, and Gindelsky (2017) and Leukhina and Turnovsky (2016), the literature has little studied the role of population growth on allocations across sectors or locations. Our quantitative analysis shows that this explanation is important, even if it does not rule out other explanations, such as urban bias (Ades andGlaeser 1995, Davis andHenderson 2003), conflict (Fay and Opal 2000, Maystadt and Duranton 2014, Dincecco and Gaetano Onorato 2016, natural disasters (Barrios, Bertinelli, and Strobl 2006;Henderson, Storeygard, and Deichmann 2017), trade (Glaeser 2014;Gollin, Jedwab, and Vollrath 2016), and institutions (Glaeser 2014;Henderson, Regan, and Venables 2016). 1 Moreover, our framework for studying the interaction of population growth with structural change could readily be extended to phenomena beyond the UMT and shows that the conditions under which population growth does not matter for urbanization are a special case.…”

Section: The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-countrymentioning

confidence: 77%

The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization

Jedwab

Vollrath

2019

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

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Today, the world’s fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the “killer cities” of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and congestion costs across locations to account for this. In the framework, people prefer to live in low-mortality locations, and the aggregate rate of population growth and the locational choice of individuals interact. Third, we calibrate this to data from a sample of poor countries and find that informal urban areas (e.g., slums) can absorb additional population more easily than other locations. We show that between 1950 and 2005 the urban mortality transition could have doubled the urbanization rate as well as the size of informal urban areas in this sample. Of these effects, one-third could be attributed to the amenity effect of lower urban mortality rates, while the remainder is due to higher population growth disproportionately pushing people into informal urban areas. Fourth, simulations suggest that family planning programs, as well as industrialization or urban infrastructure and institutions may be effective in slowing poor-country urbanization. (JEL I12, J11, N30, O15, O18, R11, R23)

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Section: The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-countrymentioning

confidence: 77%

The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization

Jedwab

Vollrath

2019

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

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“…It is a common and well-acknowledged practice to simplify variables in quantitative studies. Many quantitative history studies are based on the dichotomy of variables, for example, the study on Japanese invasion 38 , Jewish persecutions 39 , European wars in medieval era 40 , revolts in Nile watershed 41 , and the great famine of China 42 . Therefore, simplifying political information with a dichotomical variable is a universal, practical, and informative method.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political Pressures Increased Vulnerability to Climate Hazards for Nomadic Livestock in Inner Mongolia, China

Shi

Zhang

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Herders in Inner Mongolia experienced two completely different political periods during their last nomadic period between 1961 and 1986. However, climate and technical factors were very similar between these two periods according to statistical analyses. We retrieved historical climate and livestock population data and performed a retrospective study using generalized additive models to analyze three major livestock population demographic metrics changes between these two periods. We found that the sociopolitical factors significantly impacted all three major demographic metrics (adult mortality, neonatal mortality and birthrate) between the two periods for both large (cattle, horse, and camel) and small livestock (sheep and goat). We also identified the interaction effects between sociopolitical factor and climate factors for adult and neonatal mortality, while birthrate was not affected by these interactions. When exposed to climate hazards, adult and neonatal livestock mortality rates were significantly higher, while birthrate was significantly lower in social movement period than in peaceful period. We concluded that political movements had indeed increased the vulnerability of herders’ livestock to climate hazards. External political pressures deprived hazard-resistance entitlements of herders, which may explain the elevated effects of political pressures on livestock vulnerability.

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“…Political factors themselves may play a role in determining geographic advantage for urban development. Political instability and uncertainty can drive over-concentration in capital cities (Ades & Glaeser 1995), and a classic literature has linked warfare with increased urbanization as people take shelter in densely settled areas (Tilly 1989, Warman 2001, Dincecco & Onorato 2016.…”

Section: Geography and Path Dependence In Urbanizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Locational fundamentals, trade, and the changing urban landscape of Mexico

Alix‐Garcia

Sellars

2020

Journal of Urban Economics

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Where do cities emerge and evolve? We examine persistence and change in the distribution of Mexico's urban population from the colonial era to the present, with emphasis on the country's 20th-century transformation. We demonstrate that while early trade patterns and historical persistence were instrumental in sowing the seeds of Mexico's contemporary city system, both technological change and policy significantly altered the trajectory of urbanization. The relative importance of locational fundamentals decreases over time, while the influence of international trade access increases, highlighting that political and economic decision-making shape the importance of geography for development. The findings suggest that although geographic advantage plays an important role in initial city emergence, geography is not destiny in urbanization.

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Military conflict and the rise of urban Europe

Cited by 63 publications

References 48 publications

The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization

The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization

Political Pressures Increased Vulnerability to Climate Hazards for Nomadic Livestock in Inner Mongolia, China

Locational fundamentals, trade, and the changing urban landscape of Mexico

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