Political Pressures Increased Vulnerability to Climate Hazards for Nomadic Livestock in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Herders in Inner Mongolia experienced two completely different political periods during their last nomadic period between 1961 and 1986. However, climate and technical factors were very similar between these two periods according to statistical analyses. We retrieved historical climate and livestock population data and performed a retrospective study using generalized additive models to analyze three major livestock population demographic metrics changes between these two periods. We found that the sociopolitical factors significantly impacted all three major demographic metrics (adult mortality, neonatal mortality and birthrate) between the two periods for both large (cattle, horse, and camel) and small livestock (sheep and goat). We also identified the interaction effects between sociopolitical factor and climate factors for adult and neonatal mortality, while birthrate was not affected by these interactions. When exposed to climate hazards, adult and neonatal livestock mortality rates were significantly higher, while birthrate was significantly lower in social movement period than in peaceful period. We concluded that political movements had indeed increased the vulnerability of herders’ livestock to climate hazards. External political pressures deprived hazard-resistance entitlements of herders, which may explain the elevated effects of political pressures on livestock vulnerability.

Pastoral Population Growth and Land Use Policy Has Significantly Impacted Livestock Structure in Inner Mongolia—A Case Study in the Xilinhot Region

“…Prior studies have revealed that the livestock industry is susceptible to the effects of environmental, social, economic, institutional, and policy factors, which may differ substantially over spatial and temporal scales [10,19,49,50]. In our study, the pastoral population significantly impacted the massive increase in livestock population in Xilinhot in the past 40 years, suggesting a heavy dependence of local pastoralists on the animal husbandry for their livelihoods.…”

“…The snowstorms of 1977 and 1985 [56], as well as the drought during 1999-2001, led to a serious loss for the local animal husbandry, indicating that natural factors, particularly extreme events, were still a major driver for the livestock dynamics in the Xilinhot region. This is also the case in many other arid and semi-arid regions around the world [12,13,19].…”

“…According to the report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [18], many plants and animals will be at a risk of genetic diversity losses due to climate change, in particular, a rise in temperature. There is a large body of research suggesting that climate hazard and variation can be expected to bring about numerous adverse impacts on livestock production, which will be more severe and pressing for pastoralism characterized by practicing in vast marginal lands across the world [19].…”

“…Li et al [22] discussed the influence of economic improvement, income increase, and urbanization on the development of China's animal husbandry, with a dichotomy in production systems between the eastern and western regions of China [4]. At the regional scale (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Southern Europe), Li et al found that a lack of traditional grassland management or malpractices during the social movement period of 1964-1978 severely impacted the nomadic livestock industry in Inner Mongolia of China, which increased the vulnerability of livestock to climate risks [19]. The rural depopulation in Southern Europe in the late 2000s, encouraged by economic growth and agricultural policies, greatly promoted a shift from traditional livestock production to production with a higher level of specialization [23].…”