Migration Theory in Climate Mobility Research

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to explore how migration theory is invoked in empirical studies of climate-related migration, and to provide suggestions for engagement with theory in the emerging field of climate mobility. Theory is critical for understanding processes we observe in social-ecological systems because it points to a specific locus of attention for research, shapes research questions, guides quantitative model development, influences what researchers find, and ultimately informs policies and programs. Research into climate mobility has grown out of early studies on environmental migration, and has often developed in isolation from broader theoretical developments in the migration research community. As such, there is a risk that the work may be inadequately informed by the rich corpus of theory that has contributed to our understanding of who migrates; why they migrate; the types of mobility they employ; what sustains migration streams; and why they choose certain destinations over others. On the other hand, there are ways in which climate and broader environment migration research is enriching the conceptual frameworks being employed to understand migration, particularly forced migration. This paper draws on a review of 75 empirical studies and modeling efforts conducted by researchers from a diversity of disciplines, covering various regions, and using a variety of data sources and methods to assess how they used theory in their research. The goal is to suggest ways forward for engagement with migration theory in this large and growing research domain.

Global urban exposure projections to extreme heatwaves

“…Current research is exploring how to integrate and explain this kind of mobility with existing work on migration theory, such as the classical Push-Pull framework (Hochleithner and Exner, 2018) or the New Economics of Labor Migration (Stark and Bloom, 1985;Eklund et al, 2016;de Sherbinin et al, 2022). Despite uncertainty, however, increased heat will impact a number of factors related to migration, including impacts on agriculture, economic productivity, energy generation and human health.…”

Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel

“…We have opted for using only the GDPc because of the global coverage of GDPc projections data and the fact that we want to maintain the model parsimonious in the number of covariates. Moreover, by including the migration “hump function” we manage to capture a more complex dynamics of migration than that suggested by neoclassical economic theory [ 55 ] which would project decreasing migration flows as the wage differential decreases [ 8 ]. Indeed, observed migration flows have shown a more complex dynamics, with emigration rates from developing countries increasing during a first stage of economic development [ 15 , 56 ].…”

Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models

“…The Foresight climate migration conceptual model is theoretically grounded in a combination of neoclassical and push-pull theory, among others (de Sherbinin et al 2022). Neoclassical migration theory states that movement is predominantly driven by labour demand differentials between geographic locations, thus leading to migration in search of wages (Massey et al 1993).…”

“…Neoclassical migration theory states that movement is predominantly driven by labour demand differentials between geographic locations, thus leading to migration in search of wages (Massey et al 1993). This framework has largely been overtaken by the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) which accounts for more diverse household economic needs when migrating (de Sherbinin et al 2022;Fussell et al 2014). While aspirations for economic gains in tandem with climate change impacts makes it difficult to differentiate between climate migrants and economically motivated migrants, economic factors are nonetheless an important aspect in climate-affected individuals' decision-making (Oliver-Smith 2012), making NELM an appropriate stepping stone in our understanding of climate migration.…”

“…While our development and analysis of this research is framed from the Foresight framework, others may understand and conceptualise climate migration through a different lens. de Sherbinin et al (2022) note the potential pitfall of restricting focus on singular framework, stating that the utilisation of one theory or framework can lead to oversight in other critical relationships. To avoid the potential omission of important aspects in climate migration systems, we propose an aggregation of viewpoints from multiple experts with experience in climate migration research.…”