BACKGROUNDAnticipating changes in international migration patterns is useful for demographic studies and for designing policies that support the well-being of those involved. Existing forecasting methods do not account for a number of stylized facts that emerge from large-scale migration observations and theories: existing migrant communities -diasporas -act to lower migration costs and thereby provide a mechanism of self-amplification; return migration and transit migration are important components of global migration flows; and poverty constrains emigration. OBJECTIVEHere we present hindcasts and future projections of international migration that explicitly account for these nonlinear features. METHODSWe develop a dynamic model that simulates migration flows by origin, destination, and place of birth. We calibrate the model using recently constructed global datasets of bilateral migration. RESULTSWe show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well based only on initial migrant stocks and changes in national incomes. We then project migration flows under future scenarios of global socioeconomic development. CONCLUSIONSDifferent assumptions about income levels and between-country inequality lead to markedly different migration trajectories, with migration flows either converging towards net zero if incomes in presently poor countries catch up with the rest of the world; or remaining high or even rising throughout the 21st century if economic development is
The observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships suggest a potential non-linear, indirect effect of climate change on migration through this indirect channel. Here we explore this effect through a counterfactual analysis using observational data and a simple model of migration. We show that a world without climate change would have seen less migration during the past 30 years, but that this effect is strongly reduced due to inhibited mobility. Our framework suggests that migration within the Global South has been strongly reduced because these countries have seen less economic growth than they would have experienced without climate change. Importantly, climate change has impacted international migration in the richer and poorer parts of the world very differently. In the future, climate change may keep in- creasing global migration as it slows down countries’ transition across the middle-income range associated with the highest emigration rates.
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