Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions—a social-ecological regime shift analysis

Abstract

We explore how remittances shape the effect of rural out-migration on the potential for local forest transitions. Building on an existing theoretical model of social-ecological regime shifts that links migration, farmland abandonment, and forest regrowth, we incorporate migrant remittances as an additional rural-urban teleconnection. We also extend the ecological dynamics to include a dynamical forest regrowth rate, generating a slowing-down of regrowth once the landscape has undergone extensive agricultural change. We first analyse how these two extensions to the base model reshape the stability of the system, altering the existence and dynamics of alternative agricultural and forested regimes. Then we explore how two different uses of remittances by rural households (hiring agricultural labor or supplementing household income/consumption) affect the potential for local forest transitions in a context of structural economic change, represented as an increasing differential of rural and urban incomes. We find that remittances change the character of forested and agricultural regimes, and increase the resilience of the agricultural regime. This effect is stronger when remittances are used for hiring labor. The findings are consistent with empirical research that highlights the remarkable persistence of rural livelihoods and landscapes in the face of increasing global connectivity and urbanization. Remittances, and possibly other rural-urban teleconnections, are necessary components for an updated 'economic development pathway' of forest transitions. With this simple model we show that social-ecological regime shifts offer a useful perspective to study land use transition dynamics and advance land change theory.

Fostering natural forest regeneration on former agricultural land through economic and policy interventions

“…The social and cultural costs of rural migration may be high, including exploitation and increasing poverty (Garcia-Barrios et al , Hecht et al 2015. In some areas, influx of remittances following outmigration can partially compensate for losses of agricultural labor, sustaining some traditional farming activities in these areas (Ospina et al 2019). The influx of remittances varies greatly, however, depending on external economic and political conditions.…”

Coerced regimes: management challenges in the Anthropocene

“…We acknowledge that unintentional social dynamics may similarly result in coerced regimes. For example, the role of social flows such as migration and remittances can determine whether or not forest transitions occur (Ospina et al 2019). Specifically, people migrate or send money to their families not with the intention of changing the forest, but forest changes are unintended consequences of such social dynamics.…”

The implications of remittances for agricultural land use and fuelwood collection: evidence from the remaining forested landscapes in the Philippines

“…Remittances, as an outcome of outmigration, can have substantial impacts on rural households' local activities in the communities of origin, including their land use decisions, as they are likely to influence both households' consumption and agricultural production decisions. Migration out of rural areas implies changes in rural households, their livelihoods, and the surrounding landscapes (Ospina et al 2019). Previous studies have focused on the impact of remittances on farm production and rural income (Rozelle et al 1999, Jokisch 2002, Gray 2009, Atamanov and van den Berg 2012, Zhunusova and Herrmann 2018.…”