Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation

Semeniuk, K.; Fomichev, V. I.; McConnell, J. C.; Fu, Chao; Melo, S. M. L.; Usoskin, Ilya

doi:10.5194/acp-11-5045-2011

Cited by 83 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 109 publications

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“…[41] The All SC HA p and HS-HA p stratospheric polar temperature response, with a warming signal in the upper stratosphere and a cooling signal below at high latitudes in January-February, is very similar to those predicted by Baumgaertner et al [2011] and Semeniuk et al [2011] as a seasonal mean temperature response to enhanced EPP. Based on earlier work by others, Baumgaertner et al [2011] suggested that the warming signal would be a result in decrease in ozone radiative cooling as a response to ozone depletion, and the cooling signal might arise from dynamical heating due to slowing down of the meridional BrewerDobson circulation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response

et al. 2013

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[1] We analyzed ERA-40 and ERA Interim meteorological re-analysis data for signatures of geomagnetic activity in zonal mean zonal wind, temperature, and Eliassen-Palm flux in the Northern Hemisphere extended winter (November-March). We found that for high geomagnetic activity levels, the stratospheric polar vortex becomes stronger in late winter, with more planetary waves being refracted equatorward. The statistically significant signals first appear in December and continue until March, with poleward propagation of the signals with time, even though some uncertainty remains due to the limited amount of data available ( 50 years). Our results also indicated that the geomagnetic effect on planetary wave propagation has a tendency to take place when the stratosphere background flow is relatively stable or when the polar vortex is stronger and less disturbed in early winter. These conditions typically occur during high solar irradiance cycle conditions or westerly quasi-biennial oscillation conditions. Citation: Seppälä, A., H. Lu, M. A. Clilverd, and C. J. Rodger (2013), Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response,

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response

et al. 2013

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“…Odd nitrogen, produced by precipitating electrons, is longlived during polar winter and can then be transported down from its source region into the stratosphere, to altitudes well below 30 km. This has been postulated already by Solomon et al (1982) and observed many times (Callis et al, 1996;Stratospheric ozone loss due to electron-induced NO x production in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere and subsequent downward transport has been postulated by model experiments many times (Solomon et al, 1982;Schmidt et al, 2006;Marsh et al, 2007;Baumgaertner et al, 2009;Reddmann et al, 2010;Semeniuk et al, 2011;Rozanov et al, 2012). However, observational evidence for EPP-induced variations of stratospheric ozone linked to geomagnetic activity, characterized by a negative anomaly moving down with time during polar winter, have been given only very recently (Fytterer et al, 2015a;Damiani et al, 2016).…”

Section: Geomagnetic Forcing (Auroral and Radiation Belt Electrons)mentioning

confidence: 94%

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

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“…A further step would be to include SSI variability in the radiation calculation. This would allow to evaluate the importance of these two levels of feed-back on the ozone response to solar variability and results could be compared with Semeniuk et al (2011) and Gruzdev et al (2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We chose the Equator, where dynamical effects on ozone are smallest, to make our experiments more (although not entirely) comparable to CCMs. The initial concentrations and temperature are set to monthly and zonally averaged values taken from a 22-yr simulation with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (Semeniuk et al, 2011) with greenhouse gases and halogen concentrations fixed to year 1979 (courtesy Kirill Semeniuk). Initial concentrations of longlived species are taken constant with altitude and are listed in Table 1.…”

Section: Numerical Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

et al. 2012

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Abstract. The stratosphere is thought to play a central role in the atmospheric response to solar irradiance variability. Recent observations suggest that the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variability involves significant time-dependent spectral variations, with variable degrees of correlation between wavelengths, and new reconstructions are being developed. In this paper, we propose a simplified modelling framework to characterise the effect of short term SSI variability on stratospheric ozone. We focus on the pure photochemical effect, for it is the best constrained one. The photochemical effect is characterised using an ensemble simulation approach with multiple linear regression analysis. A photochemical column model is used with interactive photolysis for this purpose. Regression models and their coefficients provide a characterisation of the stratospheric ozone response to SSI variability and will allow future inter-comparisons between different SSI reconstructions. As a first step in this study, and to allow comparison with past studies, we take the representation of SSI variability from the Lean (1997) solar minimum and maximum spectra. First, solar maximum-minimum response is analysed for all chemical families and partitioning ratios, and is compared with past studies. The ozone response peaks at 0.18 ppmv (approximately 3 %) at 37 km altitude. Second, ensemble simulations are regressed following two linear models. In the simplest case, an adjusted coefficient of determinationR 2 larger than 0.97 is found throughout the stratosphere using two predictors, namely the previous day's ozone perturbation and the current day's solar irradiance perturbation. A better accuracy (R 2 larger than 0.9992) is achieved with an additional predictor, the previous day's solar irradiance perturbation. The regression models also provide simple parameterisations of the ozone perturbation due to SSI variability. Their skills as proxy models are evaluated independently against the photochemistry column model. The bias and RMS error of the best regression model are found smaller than 1 % and 15 % of the ozone response, respectively. Sensitivities to initial conditions and to magnitude of the SSI variability are also discussed.

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Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation

Cited by 83 publications

References 109 publications

Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response

Geomagnetic activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave response

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

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