Mid-Holocene Hydrologic Model of the Shingobee Watershed, Minnesota

Filby, S; Locke, Sharon; Person, Mark; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.; Ito, Emi

doi:10.1006/qres.2002.2377

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The hydraulic properties of the outwash sands have been measured by over 20 aquifer tests. Hydraulic conductivity values measured by single and multi-well aquifer tests performed at the northern edge of the watershed within the outwash sands ranged from 9.15!10 K7 to 1.72!10 K3 m s K1 (Filby et al, 2002).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

Cohen

Person

Daannen

et al. 2006

Journal of Hydrology

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This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal. RightsWorks produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted. AbstractThis paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer ...

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

Cohen

Person

Daannen

et al. 2006

Journal of Hydrology

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“…This study, along with those by Almendinger (1993), Filby et al (2002), Smith et al (2002), and Donovan et al (2002), demonstrates that interpretations of the effect of climatic change on lake levels need to consider groundwater hydrodynamics and analysis of the relative positions of the lakes within watersheds as well as local permeability. Lakes hosted in relatively low-permeability tills in our model underwent larger lake-stage changes during the mid-Holocene than did those lakes situated in relatively sandy deposits.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…on February 4, 2016 gsabulletin.gsapubs.org Downloaded from Filby et al, 2002), and dune activity (Forman et al, 2001). Locke (1995) used pollen-transfer functions of Whitlock et al (1993) and pollen data from Williams Lake sediment cores from the Shingobee Watershed (Fig.…”

Section: Minnesota's Holocene Climatic Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hydraulic properties of the outwash sands have been measured by >20 aquifer tests. Hydraulic-conductivity values, measured by singleand multiwell aquifer tests performed at the northern edge of the watershed within the outwash sands, ranged from 9.15 × 10 −7 to 1.72 × 10 −3 m/s -1 (Filby et al, 2002).…”

Section: Hydrogeologic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, distributed-parameter hydrologic models have proven effective in reconstructing past hydrologic conditions in relatively small glaciated watersheds (e.g., >10 km horizontal spatial grid resolution down to 100 × 100 m (Filby et al, 2002;Donovan et al, 2002). The advantage of using a "hindcasting" approach to assess the impact of past climate change on water resources is that a suite of paleoclimatic proxy records often exists that provides ground truth to constrain the effort.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic response of the Crow Wing Watershed, Minnesota, to mid-Holocene climate change

Person

Roy

Wright

et al. 2007

Geological Society of America Bulletin

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In this study, we have integrated a suite of Holocene paleoclimatic proxies with mathematical modeling in an attempt to obtain a comprehensive picture of how watersheds respond to past climate change. A threedimensional surface-water-groundwater model was developed to assess the effects of mid-Holocene climate change on water resources within the Crow Wing Watershed, Upper Mississippi Basin in north central Minnesota. The model was first calibrated to a 50 yr historical record of average annual surface-water discharge, monthly ground-water levels, and lake-level fluctuations. The model was able to reproduce reasonably well long-term historical records of water-table and lake-level fluctuations across the watershed as well as stream discharge near the watershed outlet. The calibrated model was then used to reproduce paleo-groundwater and lake levels using climate reconstructions based on pollen-transfer functions from Williams Lake just outside the watershed. Computed declines in mid-Holocene lake levels for two lakes at opposite ends of the watershed were between 6 and 18 m. Simulated streamflow near the outlet of the watershed decreased to 70% of modern average annual discharge after ∼200 yr. The area covered by wetlands for the entire watershed was reduced by ∼16%. The mid-Holocene hydrologic changes indicated by these model results and corroborated by several lake-core records across the Crow Wing Watershed may serve as a useful proxy of the hydrologic response to future warm, dry climatic forecasts (ca. 2050) made by some atmospheric general-circulation models for the glaciated Midwestern United States.

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Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times

2006

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Abstract:18 O is an ideal tracer for characterizing hydrological processes because it can be reliably measured in several watershed hydrological compartments. Here, we present multiyear isotopic data, i.e.18 O variations (υ 18 O), for precipitation inputs, surface water and groundwater in the Shingobee River Headwaters Area (SRHA), a well-instrumented research catchment in north-central Minnesota. SRHA surface waters exhibit υ 18 O seasonal variations similar to those of groundwaters, and seasonal υ 18 O variations plotted versus time fit seasonal sine functions. These seasonal υ 18 O variations were interpreted to estimate surface water and groundwater mean residence times (MRTs) at sampling locations near topographically closed-basin lakes. MRT variations of about 1 to 16 years have been estimated over an area covering about 9 km 2 from the basin boundary to the most downgradient well. Estimated MRT error (š0Ð3 to š0Ð7 years) is small for short MRTs and is much larger (š10 years) for a well with an MRT (16 years) near the limit of the method. Groundwater transit time estimates based on Darcy's law, tritium content, and the seasonal υ 18 O amplitude approach appear to be consistent within the limits of each method. The results from this study suggest that use of the υ 18 O seasonal variation method to determine MRTs can help assess groundwater recharge areas in small headwaters catchments.

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Mid-Holocene Hydrologic Model of the Shingobee Watershed, Minnesota

Cited by 26 publications

References 17 publications

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

Hydrologic response of the Crow Wing Watershed, Minnesota, to mid-Holocene climate change

Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times

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