Methods and Problems of Prediction

Krauth, J.

doi:10.1159/000117953

“…Of course, the Bayesian framework for prediction has its faults and limitations (see, e.g., Krauth 1983). But it represents, at a minimum, a substantive counterexample to the framework suggested by the authors.…”

Section: Mental Time Travel Sickness and A Bayesian Remedymentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans?

Suddendorf¹,

Corballis²

2007

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In a dynamic world, mechanisms allowing prediction of future situations can provide a selective advantage. We suggest that memory systems differ in the degree of flexibility they offer for anticipatory behavior and put forward a corresponding taxonomy of prospection. The adaptive advantage of any memory system can only lie in what it contributes for future survival. The most flexible is episodic memory, which we suggest is part of a more general faculty of mental time travel that allows us not only to go back in time, but also to foresee, plan, and shape virtually any specific future event. We review comparative studies and find that, in spite of increased research in the area, there is as yet no convincing evidence for mental time travel in nonhuman animals. We submit that mental time travel is not an encapsulated cognitive system, but instead comprises several subsidiary mechanisms. A theater metaphor serves as an analogy for the kind of mechanisms required for effective mental time travel. We propose that future research should consider these mechanisms in addition to direct evidence of future-directed action. We maintain that the emergence of mental time travel in evolution was a crucial step towards our current success.

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“…Briefly, in this framework, prediction is a fairly straightforward extension of parameter estimation. The future value of a given parameter can be estimated by combining the relevant probabilistic information about the past and present values of the parameter (for more rigorous expositions, see Davidson & Wolpert 2005;Glymour 2002;Krauth 1983). Three features of the Bayesian framework are especially worth highlighting in this context.…”

Section: Mental Time Travel Sickness and A Bayesian Remedymentioning

confidence: 99%

Emotional aspects of mental time travel

D’Argembeau¹,

Linden²

2007

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In a dynamic world, mechanisms allowing prediction of future situations can provide a selective advantage. We suggest that memory systems differ in the degree of flexibility they offer for anticipatory behavior and put forward a corresponding taxonomy of prospection. The adaptive advantage of any memory system can only lie in what it contributes for future survival. The most flexible is episodic memory, which we suggest is part of a more general faculty of mental time travel that allows us not only to go back in time, but also to foresee, plan, and shape virtually any specific future event. We review comparative studies and find that, in spite of increased research in the area, there is as yet no convincing evidence for mental time travel in nonhuman animals. We submit that mental time travel is not an encapsulated cognitive system, but instead comprises several subsidiary mechanisms. A theater metaphor serves as an analogy for the kind of mechanisms required for effective mental time travel. We propose that future research should consider these mechanisms in addition to direct evidence of future-directed action. We maintain that the emergence of mental time travel in evolution was a crucial step towards our current success.

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“…Prediksi dilakukan tidak hanya dalam upaya untuk mereduksi pengaruh ketidakpastian ini terhadap sebuah masalah, namun juga untuk mereduksi risiko dari masalah tersebut. Terminologi prediksi diadopsi dari kata praedicere yang maknanya adalah "memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan" (Krauth, 1983). Di sisi lain, sering terjadi istilah prediksi dan peramalan (forecast) dipertukarkan satu dengan lainnya.…”

Section: Prediksiunclassified

Sistem Prediksi Permintaan Darah Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier

Sumari

¹

,

Febrianto

²

,

Pramitarini

³

2021

JIP

0

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Stok darah merupakan salah satu faktor kritis bagi sebuah Unit Transfusi Darah (UTD) yang melayani permintaan darah dari berbagai pihak yang membutuhkan. Peran UTD sebagai penyelenggara pelayanan darah menuntut unit kesehatan tersebut mampu memenuhi kebutuhan karena terkait erat dengan kesehatan dan keselamatan nyawa seseorang. Salah satu permasalahan penting yang dihadapi UTD adalah ketidakpastian permintaan darah sehingga diperlukan cara untuk menjamin ketersediaannya. Hal ini dikarenakan sifat darah yang tidak menentu (perishable) dan tidak dapat diproduksi kembali, serta ketersediaannya yang sangat bergantung pada pendonor darah sukarela. Dalam upaya memberikan solusi, dalam penelitian ini telah dibangun sebuah sistem prediksi persediaan darah menggunakan metode Regresi Linier dengan studi kasus di UTD PMI Kabupaten Bojonegoro pada data-data terkait produk darah Whole Blood (WB) pada semua jenis golongan darah yakni A, B, O, dan AB. Dari pengujian akurasi prediksi menggunakan metode Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) diperoleh hasil-hasil prediksi yakni produk darah WB golongan A dengan MAPE 18,74% atau Baik, produk darah WB golongan B dengan MAPE 24,37% atau Masuk Akal, produk darah WB golongan O dengan MAPE 17,66% atau Baik, dan produk darah WB golongan AB dengan nilai MAPE 18,67% atau Baik. Sistem prediksi permintaan darah berbasis Regresi Linier ini mampu menunjukkan kinerja dengan rata-rata akurasi prediksi sebesar 80,14% dan dari sisi MAPE diinterpretasikan sebagai prediksi Baik.

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Methods and Problems of Prediction

Cited by 4 publications

References 36 publications

The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans?

The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans?

Emotional aspects of mental time travel

Sistem Prediksi Permintaan Darah Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier

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