Methodical approaches to health risk assessмеnt of heterogeneous environmental factors based on evolutionary models

Abstract

Abstract. The article focuses on methodological approaches to the assessment of public health risks associated with exposure to environmental and lifestyle factors. Practical approval of the methodological approaches showed that they can be used to calculate the indicators of the individual and population risks and life expectancy; the risk level was ranged according to the proposed scale. It was determined that exposure to mixed chemical factors of air pollution, road traffic noise, and negative living habits contributed to the development of an unacceptable (moderate) health risk level by the age of 47, and of a high health risk level -by the age of 58. Unhealthy behaviors such excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, and poor motion activity result in highest levels of risk factors and reduce life expectancy by an average of 12.3 years. Kew words: health risk assessment, risk evolution, integral risk, life expectancy, environmental factors.Current sanitation and epidemiological situation is characterized by a combined impact of mixed environmental factors on public health. They include biological, chemical, social, and environmental factors that have or can have an effect on human beings and (or) health of the future generations, [1]. Under the circumstance, existing approaches to the assessment of public health risks associated with certain factors and groups of factors can be used to achieve sanitary and epidemiological goals only at the local level. For this reason, assessment of risks associated with simultaneous exposure to mixed environmental and lifestyle factors is of current interest. This justifies the use of methodological approaches that, on the one hand, rely on available data on cause-and-effect relations between the public health indicators and exposure to certain factors [2][3][4], and, on the other hand, involve current scientific approaches to data processing.Risk modeling is one of the approaches based on coordinated application of statistical and analytical models that are considered to be among the most appropriate methods for the prediction and assessment of environmental and human habitat impact on public health.Negative transformations modeling of human body functions takes into account the effects associated with mixed negative exposure including age-related factors. Evolutionary models help (under given exposure scenarios throughout a whole life) assess the risk of organ and system dysfunction, and analyze the contribution of certain factors and/or their combinations to health risk development [5, 6]. Such analytical approaches aimed at the development of health risk assessment methodology help conduct numerical (virtual) experiments that are difficult to simulate in real-world environment, and assess the risk of negative effects under given exposure scenarios that combine the conditions of residential area, industrial environment, nutrition, lifestyle, etc.According to the conceptual terms of health risk modeling, a human body is an open system that is constantly interacting with the...

Parameterization of relationships between risk factors and public health under chronic exposure to complex ambient air pollution

“…This makes it possible to consider effects caused by exposure to heterogeneous factors more comprehensively, including situations when age-related changes should be taken into account. Evolution models give an opportunity to estimate risks that functional disorders would occur in specific organs and systems under present exposure scenarios during the whole lifetime and to analyze contributions made by specific factors and / or their combinations into health risks [21].…”