Meteorological Research Needs for Improved Air Quality Forecasting: Report of the 11th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program*

Abstract

The U.S. Weather Research Program convenes expert working groups on a one-time basis to identify critical research needs in various problem areas. The most recent expert working group was charged to “identify and delineate critical meteorological research issues related to the prediction of air quality.” In this context, “prediction” is denoted as “forecasting” and includes the depiction and communication of the present chemical state of the atmosphere, extrapolation or nowcasting, and numerical prediction and chemical evolution on time scales up to several days. Emphasis is on the meteorological aspects of air quality.The problem of air quality forecasting is different in many ways from the problem of weather forecasting. The latter typically is focused on prediction of severe, adverse weather conditions, while the meteorology of adverse air quality conditions frequently is associated with benign weather. Boundary layer structure and wind direction are perhaps the two most poorly determined meteorological variables for regional air quality prediction. Meteorological observations are critical to effective air quality prediction, yet meteorological observing systems are designed to support prediction of severe weather, not the subtleties of adverse air quality. Three-dimensional meteorological and chemical observations and advanced data assimilation schemes are essential. In the same way, it is important to develop high-resolution and self-consistent databases for air quality modeling; these databases should include land use, vegetation, terrain elevation, and building morphology information, among others. New work in the area of chemically adaptive grids offers significant promise and should be pursued. The quantification and effective communication of forecast uncertainty are still in their early stages and are very important for decision makers; this also includes the visualization of air quality and meteorological observations and forecasts. Research is also needed to develop effective metrics for the evaluation and verification of air quality forecasts so that users can understand the strengths and weaknesses of various modeling schemes. Last, but not of least importance, is the need to consider the societal impacts of air quality forecasts and the needs that they impose on researchers to develop effective and useful products.

An evaluation of real‐time air quality forecasts and their urban emissions over eastern Texas during the summer of 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study field study

“…[14] Figure 2 provides an analysis of median or bulk conditions for O 3 , but a main justification for real-time O 3 forecasts is the information they provide for public pollution exposure and health advisories [e.g., Dabberdt et al, 2004]. For health-related issues the useful information is not contained in the bulk statistics, but rather in the occurrence of maximum 8-h average O 3 values greater than a particular threshold value.…”

Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) during wintertime: a case study

“…Dabberdt et al (2004) have listed the meteorological research needs for improving air quality forecasting, one of which is to provide the model uncertainty information through ensemble prediction capabilities and quantify uncertainties and feedbacks between meteorological and air quality modeling components. Numerous studies have been performed in China to explore the role of meteorological conditions in the air pollution formation (e.g., Gao et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2012Zhang et al, , 2015Wu et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2014;Bei et al, 2016a, b).…”

Case Study of Pollutants Concentration Sensitivity to Meteorological Fields and Land Use Parameters over Douala (Cameroon) Using AERMOD Dispersion Model

“…Hight impact refers to conditions that affect or alter behavior by general public, government agency, and private sector activities, including health and the environment, aviation, surface transportation, electric power, public events, broadcasting, and emergency management [12]. Also, the atmospheric boundary layer is that region between the earth's surface and the overlying atmosphere where many local phenomena occur, including turbulence processes and free flowing (geostrophic) atmosphere.…”