Meteorological and climatological triggers of notable past and present bark beetle outbreaks in the Czech Republic

Brázdil, Rudolf; Zahradník, Petr; Szabó, Péter; Chromá, Kateřina; Dobrovolný, Petr; Dolák, Lukáš; Trnka, Miroslav; Řehoř, Jan; Suchánková, Silvie

doi:10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…In Czechia, the mortality pattern of Norway spruce for the period 1990–2021 is similar to the pattern described here for the Black Forest (Lubojacký et al, 2022). Also, the pattern of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for Czechia described by Brázdil et al (2022) is similar to the pattern of the CWB presented here. Besides climate‐driven mortality, climate‐driven growth variation of Norway spruce in Belarus has been described by Kharuk et al (2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Climate‐driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany—Long‐term observations

Spiecker

Kahle

2023

Global Change Biology

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Episodic tree mortality can be caused by various reasons. This study describes climate‐driven tree mortality and tree growth in the Black Forest mountain range in Germany. It is based on a 68‐year consistent data series describing the annual mortality of all trees growing in a forest area of almost 250 thousand ha. The study excludes mortality caused by storm, snow and ice, and fire. The sequence of the remaining mortality, the so‐called “desiccated trees,” is analyzed and compared with the sequence of the climatic water balance during the growing season and the annual radial growth of Norway spruce in the Black Forest. The annual radial growth series covers 121 years and the climatic water balance series 140 years. These unique time series enable a quantitative assessment of multidecadal drought and heat impacts on growth and mortality of forest trees on a regional spatial scale. Data compiled here suggest that the mortality of desiccated trees in the Black Forest during the last 68 years is driven by the climatic water balance. Decreasing climatic water balance coincided with an increase in tree mortality and growth decline. Consecutive hot and dry summers enhance mortality and growth decline as a consequence of drought legacies lasting several years. The sensitivity of tree growth and mortality to changes in the climatic water balance increases with the decreasing trend of the climatic water balance. The findings identify the climatic water balance as the main driver of mortality and growth variation during the 68‐year observation period on a landscape‐scale including a variety of different sites. They suggest that bark beetle population dynamics modify mortality rates. They as well provide evidence that the mortality during the last 140 years never was as high as in the most recent years.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Climate‐driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany—Long‐term observations

Spiecker

Kahle

2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Gaps in a time‐series can be interpreted in two ways: either no disturbance happened or some disturbance of a certain magnitude happened and has not been reported. For instance, in the Czech Republic we have a very long time‐series with few gaps, where we know with some confidence that there was no bark beetle damage in years without reporting (expert interpretation and Brázdil et al, 2022). Therefore, we assumed no bark beetle damage in those years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Patacca

Lindner

Lucas‐Borja

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

145

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“…The current calamity experienced in the country since mid-2010s has no recorded historical analogue to its scope and devastating effect on the Czech spruce-dominated forests [ 8 ]. This is unfortunate also in the context of the adopted commitments under the EU LULUCF regulation [ 4 , 6 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years (2018–2021), the Czech forestry sector has been one of the few in the EU that generated CO 2 emissions. This is mainly due to the decline of predominantly Norway spruce-dominated stands caused by an unprecedented drought [ 7 , 8 ] that induced the extreme bark beetle calamity since 2018 (initiated earlier—in 2014/2015—in Eastern part of the country). As a result, the required sanitary harvest volume extremely increased from about 4.5 Mm 3 in 2014 to almost 34 Mm 3 in 2020 [ 9 ], which significantly exceeded the current growth rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

Cienciala,

Melichar

2024

Carbon Balance Manage

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Background We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018–2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation. Results This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43–20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario. Conclusion The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

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Meteorological and climatological triggers of notable past and present bark beetle outbreaks in the Czech Republic

Cited by 7 publications

References 53 publications

Climate‐driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany—Long‐term observations

Climate‐driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany—Long‐term observations

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

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