The influence of uncertainties in gridded observational reference data on regional climate model (RCM) evaluation is quantified on a pan‐European scale. Three different reference data sets are considered: the coarse‐resolved E‐OBS data set, a compilation of regional high‐resolution gridded products (HR) and the European‐scale MESAN reanalysis. Five high‐resolution ERA‐Interim‐driven RCM experiments of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative are evaluated against each of these references over eight European sub‐regions and considering a range of performance metrics for mean daily temperature and daily precipitation. The spatial scale of the evaluation is 0.22°, that is, the grid spacing of the coarsest data set in the exercise (E‐OBS). While the three reference grids agree on the overall mean climatology, differences can be pronounced over individual regions. These differences partly translate into RCM evaluation uncertainty. For most cases observational uncertainty is smaller than RCM uncertainty. Nevertheless, for individual sub‐regions and performance metrics observational uncertainty can dominate. This is especially true for precipitation and for metrics targeting the wet‐day frequency, the pattern correlation and the distributional similarity. In some cases the spatially averaged mean bias can also be considerably affected. An illustrative ranking exercise highlights the overall effect of observational uncertainty on RCM ranking. Over individual sub‐domains, the choice of a specific reference can modify RCM ranks by up to four levels (out of five RCMs). For most cases, however, RCM ranks are stable irrespective of the reference. These results provide a twofold picture: model uncertainty dominates for most regions and for most performance metrics considered, and observational uncertainty plays a minor role. For individual cases, however, observational uncertainty can be pronounced and needs to be definitely taken into account. Results can, to some extent, also depend on the treatment of precipitation undercatch in the observational reference.

Summary1. The plant community structure of European lowland forests has changed dramatically in the twentieth century, leading to biodiversity decline at various spatial scales. However, due to methodological difficulties associated with simultaneous changes in species diversity and composition, ecological processes behind the changes are still poorly understood. 2. We analysed temporal changes in forest plant community after the mid-twentieth-century abandonment of coppicing in a typical Central European forest, which had been managed as coppice for centuries. We used 122 semi-permanent plots first surveyed in the 1950s shortly after the last coppicing and again in the 2000s after half a century of natural succession. We used a novel temporal nestedness analysis to disentangle the immigration and extinction processes underlying temporal changes in community structure and tested whether species gains and losses were ecologically random. 3. The studied vegetation has shifted from the species-rich assemblages of a relatively open and low-nutrient forest towards the impoverished flora of a closed-canopy forest dominated by a few shade-adapted species. The significant reduction in beta diversity, that is, compositional heterogeneity among plots, indicated taxonomic homogenization of the forest understorey. Temporal species turnover was only a minor component of the community change, and recent assemblages are nested subsets of the former ones. Ecologically non-random extinctions dominated these changes. Light-demanding species with a persistent seed bank were the most prone to extinction, while species with high specific leaf area substantially increased in frequency. 4. Synthesis and applications. The dominant process after the abandonment of coppicing was the ecologically non-random extinction of light-demanding species, leading to an impoverished, temporally nested plant community structure. This development is typical for many abandoned coppices and poses a significant threat to forest biodiversity in Europe. If forestry and conservation policies continue to prefer closed-canopy stands, many endangered species are likely to pay their extinction debts. To restore declining or even locally extinct species, canopy opening in abandoned coppices is urgently needed.

The post-glacial fate of central European grasslands has stimulated palaeoecological debates for a century. Some argued for the continuous survival of open land, while others claimed that closed forest had developed during the Middle Holocene. The reasons behind stability or changes in the proportion of open land are also unclear. We aim to reconstruct regional vegetation openness and test the effects of climate and human impact on vegetation change throughout the Holocene. We present a newly dated pollen record from north-western fringes of the Pannonian Plain, east-central Europe, and reconstruct Holocene regional vegetation development by the REVEALS model for 27 pollen-equivalent taxa. Estimated vegetation is correlated in the same area with a human activity model based on all available archaeological information and a macrophysical climate model. The palaeovegetation record indicates the continuous presence of open land throughout the Holocene. Grasslands and open woodlands were probably maintained by local arid climatic conditions during the early Holocene delaying the spread of deciduous (oak) forests. Significantly detectable human-made landscape transformation started only after 2000 BC. Our analyses suggest that Neolithic people spread into a landscape that was already open. Humans probably contributed to the spread of oak, and influenced the dynamics of hazel and hornbeam.