Messaging Should Reflect the Nuanced Relationship between Land Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk

Abstract

A hallmark of the media publicity surrounding COVID-19 has been the message that land change causes zoonotic diseases to spill over from wild animals to humans. The secondary peer-reviewed literature sends a similar message. However, as indicated in the primary peer-reviewed literature, the complexity of interacting variables involved in zoonotic disease spillover makes it unlikely for such a claim to be universally applicable. The secondary peer-reviewed literature and the mainstream media also differ markedly from the primary peer-reviewed literature in their lack of nuance in messaging about the relationship between land change and spillover risk. We advocate accurate, nuanced messaging for the sake of the local communities at greatest risk from zoonotic disease, for the sake of scientific credibility, and so that proportionate attention may be given to other possible drivers of spillover risk.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots

“…We acknowledge the complexity of pathogen responses to land use modification ( 9 ), and important data use limitations for specific contexts. The static datasets used here are all global yet accessible.…”

“…Pervasive, accelerated land use change ( 6 ), human encroachment, increasing and changing contacts among and between wildlife and domestic animals are among the multiple drivers of zoonotic pathogen transmission ( 7 ). However, the exact pathways of disease emergence are often unclear ( 8, 9 ). Cross-scale evaluation of disease emergence drivers, that can be measured and mapped, may allow decision-makers to know where to act and implement surveillance ( 10 ).…”