MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Documentation - 2020 release

Krey, Volker; Havlík, Petr; Kishimoto, P.; Fricko, O.; Zilliacus, J.; Gidden, Matthew; Strubegger, M.; Kartasasmita, G.; Ermolieva, T.; Forsell, Nicklas; Guo, Fanyi; Gusti, Muhammad Chandra; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, Nastasha; Kikstra, J.; Kindermann, G.; Kolp, P.; Lovat, F.; McCollum, David; Min, Joosik; Pachauri, Shonali; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Susan; Rogelj, J.; Unlu, G.; Valin, H.; Wagner, Petra; Zakeri, Behzad; Obersteiner, Michael; Riahi, K.

doi:10.22022/iacc/03-2021.17115

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 0 publications

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“…In this study, we aim to couple the full bottom-up MariTeam model 20,21 which combines ship technical speci cations, ship location data, and weather data in high spatial and temporal resolution obtained from satellite data to calculate emissions, with the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM [24][25][26][27] framework, a dynamic systems-optimization modeling framework that enables comprehensive analyses of energy, economy, and the environment in the context of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Through that, we aim to increase the robustness of how shipping is modelled using extensive data obtained from the MariTeam model, while integrating the sector with the global energy sector.…”

Section: Interfacing Sectoral Targets and Global Scenarios For Shippi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime sector transition pathways towards net-zero within global energy scenarios

Kramel,

Krey,

Fricko

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The maritime sector's pathway towards decarbonization will not occur in isolation but rather intricately linked with the broader global energy, economic, and political systems. Yet, existing literature often overlooks this integrated perspective, focusing primarily on sector-specific strategies without considering societal changes and energy availability on a global scale. To bridge this gap, we employ a novel approach by coupling the MariTeam ship emission model within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework to examine the potential impacts of various energy, agriculture, economy, and climate scenarios on the maritime sector's trajectory towards achieving net-zero emissions around 2050, as mandated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Through our integrated modeling framework, we demonstrate that the maritime sector could have access to enough renewables to achieve substantial emissions reductions with minor implication in final product costs (median of 5%, with a second quartile range of 1% and a third quartile range of 17%). Our analysis also reveals that achieving the IMO’s goal is technically feasible while highlighting the importance of initiating the transition well before 2030, leveraging a triad of solutions by 2050 comprising energy efficiency improvements, biofuels, and blue ammonia. Each of these solutions is estimated to contribute to approximately one-third of emissions abatement within the sector, paving the way for further adoption of green ammonia and hydrogen by the end of the century. By considering broader societal and energy dynamics, our study offers valuable insights into the possible pathways for achieving the net-zero goals in the maritime sector.

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Section: Interfacing Sectoral Targets and Global Scenarios For Shippi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime sector transition pathways towards net-zero within global energy scenarios

Kramel,

Krey,

Fricko

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Still, there are many differences in model setup and in the underlying assumptions remaining. The value of a growing forest carbon stock is implemented using a carbon price, which, depending on the model, is either determined in the energy sector model (Popp et al, 2017) or from a comprehensive simulation of energy sector and land use (Krey et al, 2020;Wise et al, 2009). This price is designed to keep carbon emissions compatible with a certain carbon budget and a climate target (here with 1.5 or 2°C of global warming) across economic sectors.…”

Section: Appendix B: Potentially Burned Forest Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire Weather Compromises Forestation-reliant Climate Mitigation Pathways

Jäger,

Schwaab,

Quilcaille

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, an increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes is posed to have profound impact on forests, and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) by show-casing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

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“…MESSAGE’s initial energy needs are top-down forecasts that incorporate the water sector and are calibrated using estimated historical water infrastructure capacity and expected energy intensities. This integrated approach ensures a precise quantification of emissions, including CO 2 from fossil fuels and biomass, with the MESSAGE model’s detailed representation of energy-related emissions and mitigation strategies, as well as non-CO 2 GHGs from various sources …”

Section: State Of the Art In Iam And Cge Modeling Of The Wastewater S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

Dunn,

Greene,

Vasquez-Arroyo

et al. 2024

Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett.

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Sustainable water management is essential to increasing water availability and decreasing water pollution. The wastewater sector is expanding globally and beginning to incorporate technologies that recover nutrients from wastewater. Nutrient recovery increases energy consumption but may reduce the demand for nutrients from virgin sources. We estimate the increase in annual global energy consumption (1,100 million GJ) and greenhouse gas emissions (84 million t CO 2 e) for wastewater treatment in the year 2030 compared to today's levels to meet sustainable development goals. To capture these trends, integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models that address the energy-water nexus must evolve. We reviewed 16 of these models to assess how well they capture wastewater treatment plant energy consumption and GHG emissions. Only three models include biogas production from the wastewater organic content. Four explicitly represent energy demand for wastewater treatment, and eight include explicit representation of wastewater treatment plant greenhouse gas emissions. Of those eight models, six models quantify methane emissions from treatment, five include representation of emissions of nitrous oxide, and two include representation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Our review concludes with proposals to improve these models to better capture the energy-water nexus associated with the evolving wastewater treatment sector.

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MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Documentation - 2020 release

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Maritime sector transition pathways towards net-zero within global energy scenarios

Maritime sector transition pathways towards net-zero within global energy scenarios

Fire Weather Compromises Forestation-reliant Climate Mitigation Pathways

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

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