Maritime sector transition pathways towards net-zero within global energy scenarios

Abstract

The maritime sector's pathway towards decarbonization will not occur in isolation but rather intricately linked with the broader global energy, economic, and political systems. Yet, existing literature often overlooks this integrated perspective, focusing primarily on sector-specific strategies without considering societal changes and energy availability on a global scale. To bridge this gap, we employ a novel approach by coupling the MariTeam ship emission model within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework to examine the potential impacts of various energy, agriculture, economy, and climate scenarios on the maritime sector's trajectory towards achieving net-zero emissions around 2050, as mandated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Through our integrated modeling framework, we demonstrate that the maritime sector could have access to enough renewables to achieve substantial emissions reductions with minor implication in final product costs (median of 5%, with a second quartile range of 1% and a third quartile range of 17%). Our analysis also reveals that achieving the IMO’s goal is technically feasible while highlighting the importance of initiating the transition well before 2030, leveraging a triad of solutions by 2050 comprising energy efficiency improvements, biofuels, and blue ammonia. Each of these solutions is estimated to contribute to approximately one-third of emissions abatement within the sector, paving the way for further adoption of green ammonia and hydrogen by the end of the century. By considering broader societal and energy dynamics, our study offers valuable insights into the possible pathways for achieving the net-zero goals in the maritime sector.