Mental economics: Subjective representations of factors related to expected inflation

Svenson, Ola; Nilsson, G

doi:10.1016/0167-4870(86)90024-3

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Finally, in an earlier study, Svenson and Nilsson (1986) compared psychology students' mental models of inflation with those of economics students. They developed a method to elicit variables perceived as related to inflation and judgements of the perceived strength of the relationships between them.…”

Section: Individuals' Conceptualisations Of Inflation and The Economymentioning

confidence: 98%

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Ranyard

Missier

Bonini

et al. 2008

Journal of Economic Psychology

131

101

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Section: Individuals' Conceptualisations Of Inflation and The Economymentioning

confidence: 98%

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Ranyard

Missier

Bonini

et al. 2008

Journal of Economic Psychology

131

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…As a notable example, questions about inflation expectations can ask about 'prices in general' or 'inflation' (Bruine de Bruin et al, 2012). Although the 'inflation' wording may seem more difficult (Bruine de Bruin et al, 2012), people tend to be familiar with the term (Leiser & Drori, 2005;Svenson & Nilsson, 1986;Williamson & Wearing, 1996).…”

Section: Effects Of Question Wording: 'Prices In General' Vs 'Inflatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise

Bruin

Klaauw

Rooij

et al. 2017

Journal of Economic Psychology

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Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers' inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the importance of three survey design features in explaining observed differences: mode (face-to-face vs. web), question wording ('prices in general' vs. 'inflation'), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We examine effects on item non-responses, revisions, reported inflation expectations and their deviation from the CPI inflation rate. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design.

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“…However, others recognized the question about "prices in general" as asking about the U.S. inflation rate. Indeed, studies have found that members of the general public are familiar with the term "inflation" and have a basic understanding of what it means (Leiser & Drori, 2005;Svenson & Nilsson, 1986;Williamson & Wearing, 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation

et al. 2010

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractPublic expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable disagreement between respondents. Possibly, responses reflect how much respondents thought of salient personal experiences with specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents to questions about "prices in general," as well as "the rate of inflation" and "price you pay." Reported expectations and perceptions were higher and more dispersed for "prices in general" than for "the rate of inflation," with "prices you pay" and "prices in general" showing similar responses patterns. Compared to questions about "the rate of inflation," questions about "prices in general" and "prices you pay" focused respondents relatively more on personal price experiences-and elicited expectations that were more strongly correlate to the expected price increases for food and transportation, which were relatively large and likely salient, but not to the expected price increases for housing, which were relatively small and likely less salient. Our results have implications for survey measures of inflation expectations.

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Mental economics: Subjective representations of factors related to expected inflation

Cited by 20 publications

References 16 publications

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise

The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation

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