Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Barredo, José I.; Caudullo, Giovanni; Dosio, Alessandro

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.08.003

Cited by 67 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Two studies assessing changes in the area of Mediterranean climate under IPCC SRES scenarios were implemented at global (Klausmeyer and Shaw 2009) and European level (Barredo et al 2016). Nevertheless, methodological, data and spatial domain differences of the studies make challenging any comparison with our study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite these differences, a comparison of the maps of both studies shows accordance in the overall pattern of the MCD, though the projected changes in the European region are more conservative in Klausmeyer and Shaw (2009). Second, Barredo et al (2016) used four RCM simulations from ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) at the 25 km horizontal resolution (scenario A1B) and 50 km (E1: stabilisation scenario), disaggregated to 1 km horizontal resolution. They indicate that by the end of the century under A1B and E1 scenarios the MCD is projected to shift to other climate domains by an area equivalent to 53-121% of its present extent, in addition the contraction was projected to 11-25%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Mediterranean climate is often described using the Cs type of the Köppen-Geiger classification, defined as ''warm temperate climate with dry summer'' (Klausmeyer and Shaw 2009;Kottek et al 2006), while the arid climate is represented by the B type, ''arid climates'' (Kottek et al 2006;Peel et al 2007). In this study, we used the criteria for Cs and B climate types according to Barredo et al (2016), Garcia et al (2014), andPeel et al (2007), and followed Barredo et al (2016), Garcia et al (2014), Peel et al (2007), and Russell (1931) using the temperature of the coldest month greater than 0°C, instead of -3°C as used originally in the Köppen-Geiger classification in defining the temperate-cold climate boundary. Cs and B climate types are mutually exclusive, where the occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of the other.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have shown that climate-driven habitat loss is a major threat for Mediterranean biodiversity with projected spatial shifts of the present extent of the Mediterranean climate zone (Barredo et al 2016;Klausmeyer and Shaw 2009). However, these studies have used either atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with a horizontal resolution in the order of hundreds of kilometres (Klausmeyer and Shaw 2009) or a limited number of regional climate model (RCM) simulations (Barredo et al 2016), both using the previous SRES scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000) of the IPCC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these studies have used either atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with a horizontal resolution in the order of hundreds of kilometres (Klausmeyer and Shaw 2009) or a limited number of regional climate model (RCM) simulations (Barredo et al 2016), both using the previous SRES scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000) of the IPCC. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate domain (MCD) in Europe and the conversion into arid climate (hereafter arid climate domain-ACD) under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) adopted by the IPCC in its Fifth Assessment Report, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Moss et al 2010;van Vuuren et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Barredo

Mauri

Caudullo

et al. 2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (* 157,000 km 2 ) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Barredo

Mauri

Caudullo

et al. 2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Testing bias adjustment methods for regional climate change applications under observational uncertainty and resolution mismatch

Casanueva

Herrera

Iturbide

et al. 2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Systematic biases in climate models hamper their direct use in impact studies and, as a consequence, many statistical bias adjustment methods have been developed to calibrate model outputs against observations. The application of these methods in a climate change context is problematic since there is no clear understanding on how these methods may affect key magnitudes, for example, the climate change signal or trend, under different sources of uncertainty. Two relevant sources of uncertainty, often overlooked, are the sensitivity to the observational reference used to calibrate the method and the effect of the resolution mismatch between model and observations (downscaling effect).In the present work, we assess the impact of these factors on the climate change signal of temperature and precipitation considering marginal, temporal and extreme aspects. We use eight standard and state-of-the-art bias adjustment methods (spanning a variety of methods regarding their natureempirical or parametric-, fitted parameters and trend-preservation) for a case study in the Iberian Peninsula. The quantile trend-preserving methods (namely quantile delta mapping (QDM), scaled distribution mapping (SDM) and the method from the third phase of ISIMIP-ISIMIP3) preserve better the raw signals for the different indices and variables considered (not all preserved by construction). However, they rely largely on the reference dataset used for calibration, thus presenting a larger sensitivity to the observations, especially for precipitation intensity, spells and extreme indices. Thus, high-quality observational datasets are essential for comprehensive analyses in larger (continental) domains. Similar conclusions hold for experiments carried out at high (approximately 20 km) and low (approximately 120 km) spatial resolutions.

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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Barredo¹,

Mauri²,

Caudullo³

et al. 2019

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Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Cited by 67 publications

References 40 publications

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Testing bias adjustment methods for regional climate change applications under observational uncertainty and resolution mismatch

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

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