Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Barredo, José I.; Mauri, Achille; Caudullo, Giovanni; Dosio, Alessandro

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-11958-4_14

Cited by 11 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Lichen species richness had a negative relation with mean temperature and a positive one with annual precipitation. This implies that both increasing warming and aridity, that are expected to be dramatic in Mediterranean regions 58 , may strongly affect these poikilohydric organisms 59 – 61 in the southernmost mountains. Our results indicate that the effect of these climatic filters should be mirrored in functional shifts of local communities mainly related to reproduction/dispersal strategy and growth form.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also growth forms are responsive to climate, mainly reflecting a tradeoff between temperature and precipitation 15 . For example, fruticose species that currently find their most suitable conditions in the intermediate part of the elevational gradient are expected to be negatively impacted by climate change when warming is coupled with more dry conditions, as it is predicted for Mediterranean regions 58 . In contrast, more desiccation tolerant forms, as in the case of crustose or small foliose lichens, may be enhanced under warmer and dryer conditions 64 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains

Nuzzo

Vallese

Benesperi

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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We explored the influence of climatic factors on diversity patterns of multiple taxa (lichens, bryophytes, and vascular plants) along a steep elevational gradient to predict communities’ dynamics under future climate change scenarios in Mediterranean regions. We analysed (1) species richness patterns in terms of heat-adapted, intermediate, and cold-adapted species; (2) pairwise beta-diversity patterns, also accounting for its two different components, species replacement and richness difference; (3) the influence of climatic variables on species functional traits. Species richness is influenced by different factors between three taxonomic groups, while beta diversity differs mainly between plants and cryptogams. Functional traits are influenced by different factors in each taxonomic group. On the basis of our observations, poikilohydric cryptogams could be more impacted by climate change than vascular plants. However, contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were also found between lichens and bryophytes suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Our study supports the usefulness of a multi-taxon approach coupled with a species traits analysis to better unravel the response of terrestrial communities to climate change. This would be especially relevant for lichens and bryophytes, whose response to climate change is still poorly explored.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains

Nuzzo

Vallese

Benesperi

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…According to Barredo and coauthors [ 35 ] that aggregated and analysed the output of eleven downscaled models, average annual temperatures in the Mediterranean are expected to rise 1 °C by 2050, and 1.9 °C by 2100, under RCP4.5, compared to the reference period of 1981–2010. With respect to the high emission scenario RCP8.5, the respective increases in temperature are projected to be 1.2 and 3.8 °C.…”

Section: Temperature Projections In the Mediterranean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediterranean Aquaculture in a Changing Climate: Temperature Effects on Pathogens and Diseases of Three Farmed Fish Species

et al. 2021

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Climate change is expected to have a drastic effect on aquaculture worldwide. As we move forward with the agenda to increase and diversify aquaculture production, rising temperatures will have a progressively relevant impact on fish farming, linked to a multitude of issues associated with fish welfare. Temperature affects the physiology of both fish and pathogens, and has the potential to lead to significant increases in disease outbreaks within aquaculture systems, resulting in severe financial impacts. Significant shifts in future temperature regimes are projected for the Mediterranean Sea. We therefore aim to review and discuss the existing knowledge relating to disease outbreaks in the context of climate change in Mediterranean finfish aquaculture. The objective is to describe the effects of temperature on the physiology of both fish and pathogens, and moreover to list and discuss the principal diseases of the three main fish species farmed in the Mediterranean, namely gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), and meagre (Argyrosomus regius). We will attempt to link the pathology of each disease to a specific temperature range, while discussing potential future disease threats associated with the available climate change trends for the Mediterranean Sea.

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“…While temperature increase and precipitation decrease have been already observed (IPCC, 2013), MED-CORDEX RCP 4.5 scenario projections, as simulated by ALADIN v5.2 for the 2071-2100 period (Tramblay et al, 2013;Dell'Aquila et al 2018;Drobinski et al, 2018;Tramblay et al, 2018), estimates a spatially distributed temperature increase of 1.4 to 3.5°C and a precipitation evolution of ± 10% while RCP 4.5 projects an increase of 2.2 to 6.4°C and a precipitation evolution of ± 20% compared with the baseline period 1970-2000 with expected shifts of Mediterranean climate and expansion of arid regions (Beck et al, 2018;Barredo et al, 2019) and related water restrictions and legal decision-making processes (Sauquet et al, 2018).…”

Section: Rcp or Radiative Concentration Pathway Is A Greenhouse Gas (mentioning

confidence: 99%

Specific Climate Classification for Mediterranean Hydrology and Future Evolution Under Med-CORDEX RCM Scenarios

Allam¹,

Moussa²,

Najem³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class 1 in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class 5 in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN and CCLM historical and projected data at 12-km and 50-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline grid based classification. RCP scenarios are increasing seasonality index Is by +80 % and aridity index IArid by +60 % in the North and IArid by +10 % without Is change in the South, hence causing the wet seasons shortening and river regimes modification with the migration North of winter moderate and extreme winter regimes instead of early spring regimes. ALADIN and CCLM RCM models have demonstrated an evolution of the Mediterranean region towards arid climate. The classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. These scenarios might look favourable for Mediterranean cultivation however, the expected impact on water resources and flow regimes will sure expand and directly hit ecosystems, food, health and tourism as risk is interconnected between domains. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.

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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Cited by 11 publications

References 52 publications

Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains

Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains

Mediterranean Aquaculture in a Changing Climate: Temperature Effects on Pathogens and Diseases of Three Farmed Fish Species

Specific Climate Classification for Mediterranean Hydrology and Future Evolution Under Med-CORDEX RCM Scenarios

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