Medieval Irish chronicles reveal persistent volcanic forcing of severe winter cold events, 431–1649 CE

Abstract

Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431-1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland's climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions.

The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America during the last millennium in an isotope-enabled general circulation model

“…Volcanic forcing has had a very large influence on the climate of the LM (Crowley, 2000;Hegerl et al, 2003Hegerl et al, , 2006Shindell et al, 2004;Mann et al, 2005;Fischer et al, 2007;D'Arrigo et al, 2009;Timmreck, 2012;Esper et al, 2013;Ludlow et al, 2013;Schurer et al, 2014). Several studies (Miller et al, 2012;Schurer et al, 2014;Atwood et al, 2016;McGregor et al, 2015) collectively provide a compelling case that volcanic forcing may be substantially more important than solar forcing on a hemispheric to global scale during the LM, in addition to driving a large portion of the interannual to multi-decadal variability in LM simulations (Schmidt et al, 2014b).…”

Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE

“…Volcanic reconstructions have been extensively used to understand climate variability in instrumental and proxybased climate records (Crowley et al, 2008;Hegerl et al,have been used to show that volcanism is the dominant natural driver of climate variability in the Earth's recent past (Schurer et al, 2013). Volcanic reconstructions are also increasingly being used to understand the role of sudden climate changes in the evolution of past societies as recorded in documentary and archaeological archives (Ludlow et al, 2013;Oppenheimer, 2011;Toohey et al, 2016a).…”

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

“…A particular emphasis has been placed on the contemporary and future challenges faced by cities in both developing and developed world contexts (Chan, Mitchell, Adekola, & McDonald, 2012;Chatterjee, 2010;Mitchell, 1999;Leichenko, 2011;Pelling, 2003;Solecki, Leichenko, & O'Brien, 2011). While this focus on the contemporary and future hazards facing cities is both admirable and necessary a growing number of researchers have also highlighted that there is much to be learned from historical analyses of both physical exposure and human vulnerability to past hazard events (Bankoff, Lübken, & Sand, 2012;Bankoff, 2013;Bankoff, 2003;Galloway, 2013;Hickey, 2011;Ludlow, et. al.…”