Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

The supposed role of climate change on societal reorganizations in Europe 1,2 and Asia 3,4 during the first half Common Era (CE) is difficult to prove without adequate annually resolved and absolutely dated climate proxy archives 5,6. Interpretation of concurrences between cooling in the 6 th century and pandemic 7,8 , rising and falling civilizations 1-6 , human migrations and political turmoil 8-13 lacks understanding of scalar and causal mechanisms. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and Austrian Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. In both regions, conditions during Roman and recent times were warmer than throughout the medieval period. Unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 CE 14 , was likely sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks 15,16 , superimposed on a solar minimum 17. This newly defined Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA, 536 to ~660 CE) exceeded the LIA in severity. Covering much of the Northern Hemisphere, it should be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague 7,8 , transformation of the eastern Roman and collapse of the Sasanian Empire 1,2,5 , movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula 8,11,12 , spread of Slavic-speaking people 9,10 , and upheavals in China 13. Annually resolved and absolutely dated insight into late Holocene climate variability is crucial in order to distinguish anthropogenic from natural forced variation 18 , and to evaluate the performance of climate model simulations 19. Spatially well-distributed palaeoclimatic archives are also essential for answering questions surrounding possible relationships between climate variability and human history 5,6. However, around the world today, there are only 13 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies that span the entire CE (Table S1).

Volcanism is a natural climate forcing causing short‐term variations in temperatures. Histories of volcanic eruptions are needed to quantify their role in climate variability and assess human impacts. We present two new seasonally resolved, annually dated non‐sea‐salt sulfur records from polar ice cores—WAIS Divide (WDC06A) from West Antarctica spanning 408 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. and NEEM (NEEM‐2011‐S1) from Greenland spanning 78 to 1997 C.E.—both analyzed using high‐resolution continuous flow analysis coupled to two mass spectrometers. The high dating accuracy allowed placing the large bi‐hemispheric deposition event ascribed to the eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu (previously thought to be 1452/1453 C.E. and used as a tie‐point in ice core dating) into the year 1458/1459 C.E. This new age is consistent with an independent ice core timescale from Law Dome and explains an apparent delayed response in tree rings to this volcanic event. A second volcanic event is detected in 1453 C.E. in both ice cores. We show for the first time ice core signals in Greenland and Antarctica from the strong eruption of Taupo in New Zealand in 232 C.E. In total, 133 volcanic events were extracted from WDC06A and 138 from NEEM‐2011‐S1, with 50 ice core signals—predominantly from tropical source volcanoes—identified simultaneously in both records. We assess the effect of large bipolar events on temperature‐sensitive tree ring proxies. These two new volcanic records, synchronized with available ice core records to account for spatial variability in sulfate deposition, provide a basis for improving existing time series of volcanic forcing.

The origin of two large peaks in the atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) concentration at AD 774/5 and 993/4 is still debated. There is consensus, however, that these features can only be explained by an increase in the atmospheric 14C production rate due to an extraterrestrial event. Here we provide evidence that these peaks were most likely produced by extreme solar events, based on several new annually resolved 10Be measurements from both Arctic and Antarctic ice cores. Using ice core 36Cl data in pair with 10Be, we further show that these solar events were characterized by a very hard energy spectrum with high fluxes of solar protons with energy above 100 MeV. These results imply that the larger of the two events (AD 774/5) was at least five times stronger than any instrumentally recorded solar event. Our findings highlight the importance of studying the possibility of severe solar energetic particle events.

Abstract. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Divide, WD) ice core is a newly drilled, high-accumulation deep ice core that provides Antarctic climate records of the past ∼68 ka at unprecedented temporal resolution. The upper 2850 m (back to 31.2 ka BP) have been dated using annual-layer counting. Here we present a chronology for the deep part of the core (67.8–31.2 ka BP), which is based on stratigraphic matching to annual-layer-counted Greenland ice cores using globally well-mixed atmospheric methane. We calculate the WD gas age–ice age difference (Δage) using a combination of firn densification modeling, ice-flow modeling, and a data set of δ15N-N2, a proxy for past firn column thickness. The largest Δage at WD occurs during the Last Glacial Maximum, and is 525 ± 120 years. Internally consistent solutions can be found only when assuming little to no influence of impurity content on densification rates, contrary to a recently proposed hypothesis. We synchronize the WD chronology to a linearly scaled version of the layer-counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC05), which brings the age of Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events into agreement with the U/Th absolutely dated Hulu Cave speleothem record. The small Δage at WD provides valuable opportunities to investigate the timing of atmospheric greenhouse gas variations relative to Antarctic climate, as well as the interhemispheric phasing of the "bipolar seesaw".

Abstract. The injection of sulfur into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions is the cause of significant climate variability. Based on sulfate records from a suite of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the eVolv2k database includes estimates of the magnitudes and approximate source latitudes of major volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) events from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, constituting an update of prior reconstructions and an extension of the record by 1000 years. The database incorporates improvements to the ice core records (in terms of synchronisation and dating) and refinements to the methods used to estimate VSSI from ice core records, and it includes first estimates of the random uncertainties in VSSI values. VSSI estimates for many of the largest eruptions, including Samalas (1257), Tambora (1815), and Laki (1783), are within 10 % of prior estimates. A number of strong events are included in eVolv2k which are largely underestimated or not included in earlier VSSI reconstructions, including events in 540, 574, 682, and 1108 CE. The long-term annual mean VSSI from major volcanic eruptions is estimated to be ∼ 0.5 Tg [S] yr −1 , ∼ 50 % greater than a prior reconstruction due to the identification of more events and an increase in the magnitude of many intermediate events. A long-term latitudinally and monthly resolved stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) time series is reconstructed from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates, and the resulting global mean SAOD is found to be similar (within 33 %) to a prior reconstruction for most of the largest eruptions. The long-term (500 BCE-1900 CE) average global mean SAOD estimated from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates including a constant "background" injection of stratospheric sulfur is ∼ 0.014, 30 % greater than a prior reconstruction. These new long-term reconstructions of past VSSI and SAOD variability give context to recent volcanic forcing, suggesting that the 20th century was a period of somewhat weaker than average volcanic forcing, with current best estimates of 20th century mean VSSI and SAOD values being 25 and 14 % less, respectively, than the mean of the 500 BCE to 1900 CE period. The reconstructed VSSI and SAOD data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/eVolv2k_v2.

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971-2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years

Abstract. We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of 10Be from WAIS Divide and 14C for IntCal13 demonstrated that WD2014 was consistently accurate to better than 0.5 % of the age. For the glacial period, comparisons to the Hulu Cave chronology demonstrated that WD2014 had an accuracy of better than 1 % of the age at three abrupt climate change events between 27 and 31 ka. WD2014 has consistently younger ages than Greenland ice core chronologies during most of the Holocene. For the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition (11.595 ka; 24 years younger) and the Bølling–Allerød Warming (14.621 ka; 7 years younger), WD2014 ages are within the combined uncertainties of the timescales. Given its high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere, with synchronization to other chronologies feasible using high-quality proxies of volcanism, solar activity, atmospheric mineral dust, and atmospheric methane concentrations.