In life and in science when needed facts, data, information, or knowledge are missing or incomplete, people often make assumptions. In the United States, this is sometimes called filling in the blanks or connecting the dots. Wiktionary defines the latter term as making connections in one's mind, thereby arriving at a more holistic understanding of a situation. 1 This definition puts a positive spin on the value of making assumptions. My goal in the following sections is to raise questions about using assumptions when it comes to health care decision making, in clinical trial design and analysis, in one's own assessment of study results, and in the application of research data to clinical practice. HISTORICAL CONTROLS In clinical trials of treatments for orphan or rare diseases, the use of historical controls assumes that the basic information about the disease has not changed. A key premise is that no epigenetic factors or mutations have changed the course, severity, or outcomes of the disease. However, making this assumption can be problematic. For example, sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease) is generally thought to be caused by some combination of as yet unknown genetic and environmental factors. Historical data suggest that 50% of patients with ALS will live for about two to three years once the diagnosis is recognized. One-fifth to one-quarter will live closer to five years, and 10% will live for 10 years or longer. The majority of ALS sufferers die from respiratory failure. 2e4 Jean-Martin Charcot, the famous French neurologist, was the first person to recognize ALS in 1869. 5 Possibly because of its rarity, ALS did not become better known until Henry Louis (Lou) Gehrig was diagnosed with it at the Mayo Clinic in 1939. Born in 1903, Gehrig was an outstanding professional baseball player. In 1939, he realized that he had been slowly losing his muscle strength. His ALS was rapidly progressive; he died on June 3, 1941, several weeks before his 38th birthday. 6 His unfortunate downhill course is typical. By contrast, Stephen Hawking was a striking ALS outlier. 7 Living until age 76 with his slowly progressing form of ALS, he was a gifted cosmologist and theoretical physicist. His first symptoms began at age 21. He received devoted care but soon lost his ability to speak. He was then able to communicate by using unique computer-based speech-synthesizing software developed by Walter Woltosz. 8 Woltosz had invented this software for his mother-inlaw who also had ALS. Although confined to a wheelchair and needing 24-h care, Hawking and others developed additional specialized aids that enabled him to continue to teach and be productive until the time of his death in the spring of 2018. Another long-living ALS sufferer was Sam Shepard (Samuel Shepard Rogers III), the Pulitzer Prize winning American playwright and actor. 9 Shepard died in the summer of 2017 at the age of 73. I have a vivid memory of his portrayal of Charles E. (Chuck) Yaeger in the movie adaptation of Tom Wolff's book, Th...