Objective: to estimate the incidence of medical adhesive-related skin injury in the peripheral venous catheter fixation region in critical cancer patients, to identify risk factors, and to establish a risk prediction model for its development. Method: a prospective cohort study with a sample of 100 adult and aged patients hospitalized in an intensive care unit. The data were analyzed using descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistics with Cox regression. Results: the incidence of medical adhesive-related skin injury was 31.0% and the incidence density was 3.4 cases per 100 people-days. The risk factors were as follows: alcoholism, smoking habit, hospitalization due to deep vein thrombosis, acute respiratory failure, immediate postoperative period, heart disease, dyslipidemia, use of antiarrhythmics, blood transfusion, friction injury, pressure injury, turgor, edema, hematoma, petechiae, low values in the Braden scale, clinical severity of the patient, elasticity, moisture, texture and color. The predictive model consisted in the following: decreased skin turgor, presence of hematoma and edema. Conclusion: medical adhesive-related skin injury at the peripheral venous catheter insertion site has a high incidence in critical cancer patients and is associated with decreased turgor, presence of hematoma and edema, evidence that can support the clinical practice.