Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa

Vellios, Nicole; Walbeek, Corné van; Ross, Hana

doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056117

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The relationship between illicit tobacco and the categorical variables (city type, country zone, type of shops, border and non-border town, price/packs, cigarette brand and country of origin) were first studied using χ 2 or Fisher’s exact test (when the number in the table was <6). Due to the binary nature of the outcome variable (licit/illicit), simple and multiple logistic regression was performed to evaluate the unadjusted and adjusted predictive values of the potential confounding variables, respectively, based on the existing literature15 16 (figure 1). Subsequently, a cluster analysis was performed to identify the effect of vendors on the sale of illicit single e stick sales in Ghana.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey

et al. 2023

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ObjectiveThis study aims to measure the extent of illicit cigarette consumption from single stick sales, to determine the nature and types of illicit cigarettes present in Ghana, and to identify the factors associated with illicit cigarette consumption in Ghana.DesignA cross-sectional study using empty cigarette packs generated by 1 day’s single stick cigarette sales collected from cigarette vendors.SettingFive large cities (Accra, Kumasi, Takoradi, Tamale and Bolgatanga) and three border towns (Aflao, Paga/Hamele and Elubo) in the northern, middle and coastal belt of Ghana.Procedure and participantsTen areas were randomly selected in each city/town, and all shops selling cigarettes within 1 km of the central point were surveyed.Outcome measures(1) Estimates of the share of illicit cigarette packs in the total cigarette sales from vendors selling single stick cigarettes in Ghana; (2) nature and types of illicit cigarette packs; (3) factors associated with illicit cigarette sales in Ghana.ResultsOf a total of 4461 packs, about 20% (95% CI 18.3 to 20.7) were found to be illicit. Aflao (Ghana-Togo border) and Tamale (Ghana-Burkina Faso border) had the highest percentage of illicit cigarette sales at 99% and 46%, respectively (p<0.001). Over half of the illicit packs originated from Togo (51%), followed by Nigeria (15%) and then Cote d’Ivoire (10%). Adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models indicated that convenience stores, border towns, pack price and the northern zone had higher odds of illicit cigarette sales.ConclusionTo effectively tackle illicit cigarettes, market surveillance and strengthening supply chain control are required, particularly at the border towns and the northern region of the country.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey

et al. 2023

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“…92 The legislation aimed at combating the ITT is not as robust as it should be, as it often imposes outdated measures (for example, the archaic diamond excise stamp that has been in use since the 1970s). 93 However, it should be acknowledged that South African regulation does not operate within a vacuum.…”

Section: Local Regulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…102 Efforts have been made to draft legislation, but no noticeable progress has been made. 103 Furthermore, about a third of South African smokers buy single stickswhich poses another hurdle altogether. 104 Art.…”

Section: Due Diligencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…103 Furthermore, about a third of South African smokers buy single stickswhich poses another hurdle altogether. 104 Art. 9:…”

Section: Due Diligencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also required is information regarding the movement and inspection of such products. 105 South Africa's ineffective tracking and tracing system creates opportunities to obfuscate figures, or simply lose track of the tobacco products.…”

Section: Recordkeepingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The South African illicit cigarette trade: Smoke signals for reform?

Fourie,

Steenkamp,

Mclntyre

et al. 2023

SA crime q.

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South Africa's Illicit cigarette trade (ICT) Is not merely large and growing but outperforms the legitimate sale of tobacco products. It is operated by extensive criminal networks, deprives the state of tax revenue and, although the measures are in place to curb the problem, they are proving to be unequal to the task. The inability of South African authorities to effectively regulate this grey market (where the legal and illegal coincide) paired with its outdated approach, is the kindling that feeds this illicit trade's flame. This article describes the current scale and nature of the ICT and evaluates the attempts to combat it in South Africa. We conclude with recommendations on measures the state, commerce and legal authorities could take to confront the problem with a reasonable chance of success.

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Quitting behavior during the tobacco sales ban in South Africa: Results from a broadly nationally representative survey

van Walbeek,

Hill,

Filby

2023

Tob. Induc. Dis.

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INTRODUCTION In response to COVID-19, the South African government banned the sale of tobacco products for 20 weeks. Before the ban, the illicit cigarette market was well-entrenched and smoking cessation services were not widely available. Several surveys conducted to ascertain cigarette smokers' responses to the ban reported substantial differences in the proportion of smokers who quit. This study provides a broadly nationally representative ex-post investigation into cigarette smokers' quitting behavior related to the sales ban. METHODS We used data from wave three of NIDS-CRAM (the National Income Dynamics Study-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey) conducted in November-December 2020. We first investigated the proportion of people who quit and who continued smoking during and after the sales ban. We subsequently linked the NIDS-CRAM survey to the fifth wave of NIDS (2017) to identify a subset of established smokers, and considered whether their quitting behavior differed from that of all smokers who smoked at the start of the sales ban. RESULTS The cross-sectional analysis showed that 7.8% of cigarette smokers quit during the sales ban, but that 55% of these quitters relapsed after it was lifted. Of the pre-ban smokers, 3.5% indicated that they did not smoke both during and after the sales ban, and 3.7% quit after the ban was lifted. The longitudinal analysis showed that 7% of people who were smoking in 2017, quit smoking cigarettes during the tobacco sales ban, but that >70% of quitters relapsed after it was lifted. Only 2% of pre-ban established smokers indicated that they did not smoke during or after the ban. CONCLUSIONS The sales ban did not have the intended objective of encouraging large-scale smoking cessation. This reflects policy failures to provide smokers with appropriate cessation support and to effectively control the illicit market both prior to and during the sales ban.

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Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa

Cited by 3 publications

References 18 publications

Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey

Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey

The South African illicit cigarette trade: Smoke signals for reform?

Quitting behavior during the tobacco sales ban in South Africa: Results from a broadly nationally representative survey

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