Measuring Pattern, Amplitude and Timing Differences between Monetary and Non-Monetary Seasonal Factors of Tourism - the Case of Aruba

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractSeasonality is a frequent and important occurrence in the tourism industry, with simultaneous effects on both the volume and financial flows of tourism. The seasonal characteristics of these monetary and nonmonetary tourism indicators can show diverging paths. Lack of synchronization between the seasonal patterns of these two types of indicators of tourism development can produce suboptimal situations, with less than best choices when formulating and implementing anti-seasonal policies. The purpose of this study is to measure pattern, amplitude and timing differences between the seasonal factors of monetary and non-monetary indicators of tourism development in Aruba. The study contributes to the gap in the literature on the dynamics in the co-movement of these two types of seasonal factors, while concurrently incorporating three measurement dimensions of this relation. Moreover, the study introduces novel calculation techniques in two of the three measurement dimensions. The methodology involves decomposing time series on both monetary and non-monetary variables using Census X12-ARIMA, with subsequent calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficients, median relative differences, and median timing differentials. The results show important quarterly differences in pattern, amplitude and timing of the seasonal factors, in terms of the applied timeframe, periodicity, variables and markets involved. The findings implicate the need for synchronizing strategies and a differentiated anti-seasonal policy.

A Framework for Classifying Causal Factors of Tourism Demand Seasonality: An Interseason and Intraseason Approach

“…This result is consistent with studies from Ridderstaat el al. (2014) and Ridderstaat and Nijkamp (2015). Seasonality also reveals variation patterns in the case of Aruba, which is also consistent with the extant literature (Ridderstaat et al, 2014; Ridderstaat & Nijkamp, 2015).…”

“…(2014) and Ridderstaat and Nijkamp (2015). Seasonality also reveals variation patterns in the case of Aruba, which is also consistent with the extant literature (Ridderstaat et al, 2014; Ridderstaat & Nijkamp, 2015). However, while these variations are systematic, they are not necessarily regular.…”