A Framework for Classifying Causal Factors of Tourism Demand Seasonality: An Interseason and Intraseason Approach

Abstract

This study proposes a framework for classifying the causal effects of tourism demand seasonality, linking between season effects (interseason) with within season effects (intraseason). The literature has typically investigated the causes of tourism demand seasonality as isolated static factors, mostly ignoring the possibility of interseason and intraseason impacts. This study contributes to the literature by providing a system of categorizing the drivers of tourism demand seasonality, by introducing additional causal factors, and by using an alternative seasonal smoothing technique. The methodology includes data decomposition, panel unit root tests, and instrumental variable regression, distinguishing between peak and shoulder seasons. The findings, based on a case study, identify vigorous–irregular and moderate–irregular factors being the most prominent drivers of U.S. tourism demand seasonality, which could assist in specific policy recommendations for more sustainable management of tourism demand seasonality.

Assessing the contribution of different markets in combatting destination seasonality: the case of Benidorm, Spain.

“…Our purpose here is not to review all the effects, causes and determinants of seasonality, which have been widely documented in the literature reviews on tourism seasonality (see Allcock, 1994;Duro, 2016;Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005), but to combine different statistical techniques which have been used independently in the past to enhance our understanding of seasonality of demand at the destination level. Research on seasonality of tourist demand continues to develop and recent studies have focused on its causes (Zvaigzne, Litavniece, & Dembovska, 2022), on the determinants (Turrión-Prats and Duro (2019), on measurement issues (Ferrante, Lo Magno, & De Cantis, 2018), on the general effects (Ridderstaat & Croes, 2020), on strategies to combat it (Sainaghi, Mauri, Ivanov, & d′Angella, 2019), on its economic effects (Cuccia & Rizzo, 2011), on the seasonality of hotel prices (Lozano, Rey-Maquieira, & Sastre, 2021), on the relationship between seasonality and tourism demand forecasting (Vergori, 2017) on its impacts on the finances of hotels (Zhang, Xie, & Sikveland, 2020), or on the individual seasonality of hotels (Duro & Turrión-Prats, 2021), among others.…”

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“…Stakeholder collaboration and government policies are important factors in supporting development in the village. Policies must be able to adjust and make corrections and modifications according to the demands and developments of the times [54,55,56] . A stakeholder collaboration model can be designed to support the preservation and development of batik among the younger generation as shown in Figure 1.…”

Comparing the day temperature and holiday effects on retail sales of alcoholic beverages – a time-series analysis

“…In economic terms, besides production and consumption-related regulations, the demand-supply relationship is arguably the most profound dynamic behind sales outcomes. From a demand perspective, demographic and socio-economic factors (Zhang et al, 2016), trends related to health benefits and risks (Rimm et al, 1996), factors related to ethnicity, religion and customs (Chaturvedi et al, 2019), the temperature preferences for drinks in warm/hot conditions (Eccles et al, 2013;Gachons et al, 2016), the consumption of alcoholic beverages with food and event specific consumption during festive periods in the year (Kushnir and Cunningham, 2014), purchases for giftgiving occasions (Hirche and Bruwer, 2014), as well as seasonal tourism demand at destinations (Ridderstaat and Croes, 2020), could all be related to seasonal and non-seasonal sales fluctuation in a market.…”