Measuring and restructuring the risk in forecasting drought classes: an application of weighted Markov chain based model for standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at one-month time scale

Ali, Zulfiqar; Hussain, Ijaz; Nazeer, Amna; Faisal, Muhammad; Ismail, Muhammad; Qamar, Sadia; Grzegorczyk, Marco; Zahid, Faisal Maqbool; Ni, Guangheng

doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1840209

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 27 publications

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“…These selected drought indices provide the standardized values for the given climate indicators (precipitation and temperature) in the selected stations. The appropriate probability distributions according to time scales and stations are selected for the standardization ( Niaz et al, 2020 ; Ali et al, 2020 ; Niaz et al, 2021 ; Raza et al, 2021 ). The BIC criteria are used to select these probability distributions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new spatiotemporal two-stage standardized weighted procedure for regional drought analysis

Niaz

Iqbal

Al‐Ansari

et al. 2022

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Drought is a complex phenomenon that occurs due to insufficient precipitation. It does not have immediate effects, but sustained drought can affect the hydrological, agriculture, economic sectors of the country. Therefore, there is a need for efficient methods and techniques that properly determine drought and its effects. Considering the significance and importance of drought monitoring methodologies, a new drought assessment procedure is proposed in the current study, known as the Maximum Spatio-Temporal Two-Stage Standardized Weighted Index (MSTTSSWI). The proposed MSTTSSWI is based on the weighting scheme, known as the Spatio-Temporal Two-Stage Standardized Weighting Scheme (STTSSWS). The potential of the weighting scheme is based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the steady-state probabilities. Further, the STTSSWS computes spatiotemporal weights in two stages for various drought categories and stations. In the first stage of the STTSSWS, the SPI, SPEI, and the steady-state probabilities are calculated for each station at a 1-month time scale to assign weights for varying drought categories. However, in the second stage, these weights are further propagated based on spatiotemporal characteristics to obtain new weights for the various drought categories in the selected region. The STTSSWS is applied to the six meteorological stations of the Northern area, Pakistan. Moreover, the spatiotemporal weights obtained from STTSSWS are used to calculate MSTTSSWI for regional drought characterization. The MSTTSSWI may accurately provide regional spatiotemporal characteristics for the drought in the selected region and motivates researchers and policymakers to use the more comprehensive and accurate spatiotemporal characterization of drought in the selected region.

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