Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone

Bohnhoff, Marco; Martínez‐Garzón, Patricia; Bulut, Fatih; Stierle, Eva; Ben‐Zion, Yehuda

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2016.02.028

Cited by 95 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…If the current slip rate is near steady state, this would correspond to slip deficits of over 2.5 m since the 1766 earthquake. Along a fault several tens of kilometers long, such slip deficits could generate an earthquake of magnitude >7, in agreement with other estimates of the earthquake hazard near Istanbul [Bohnhoff et al, 2016;Murru et al, 2016;Armijo et al, 2005;Le Pichon et al, 2001].…”

Section: 1002/2016gl069600supporting

confidence: 89%

No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

Sakic

Piete

Ballu

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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The submarine Istanbul‐Silivri fault segment, within 15 km of Istanbul, is the only portion of the North Anatolian Fault that has not ruptured in the last 250 years. We report first results of a seafloor acoustic ranging experiment to quantify current horizontal deformation along this segment and assess whether the segment is creeping aseismically or accumulating stress to be released in a future event. Ten transponders were installed to monitor length variations along 15 baselines. A joint least squares inversion for across‐fault baseline changes, accounting for sound speed drift at each transponder, precludes fault displacement rates larger than a few millimeters per year during the 6 month observation period. Forward modeling shows that the data better fit a locked state or a very moderate surface creep—less than 6 mm/yr compared to a far‐field slip rate of over 20 mm/yr—suggesting that the fault segment is currently accumulating stress.

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Section: 1002/2016gl069600supporting

confidence: 89%

No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

Sakic

Piete

Ballu

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…There seems to have been a cluster of earthquakes M w > 6:7 in the past century, and there are suggestions of similar sequences in the seventeenth to eighteenth centuries and tenth to twelfth centuries (Hartleb et al, 2006). This variable rate can be seen in Figure 5 and shows both the paleoseismic record over the past 2300 years and the record for the past 100 years (Bohnhoff et al, 2016). The record in the past 100 years is probably higher than average due to clustering, although it is also possible that the record over the past 2300 years may be lower due to missing events; events become harder to detect as we go further back in time, when the magnitude is harder to estimate.…”

Section: North Anatolian Faultmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…We remove the 1999 M w 7.6 İzmit earthquake and aftershocks from our catalog, and we are left with 82 earthquakes above the cutoff magnitude (found to be M w 4.5). We compare the results with historical data from the past 2300 years, considered complete to M w ≥ 7:4 by the catalog compilers (Bohnhoff et al, 2016).…”

Section: North Anatolian Faultmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The maximum historical earthquake with a reliable magnitude was M w 7.8 in 1939. Previous estimates of M max are in the M w 7.9-8.1 range (Bohnhoff et al, 2016). Estimates of interevent times for paleoseismic earthquakes vary widely; some estimate 210-280 years (Klinger et al, 2003), while others estimate 200-900 years (Hartleb et al, 2006).…”

Section: North Anatolian Faultmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determination of Mmax from Background Seismicity and Moment Conservation

Stevens

Avouac

2017

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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We describe a simple method to determine the probability distribution function of the magnitude M max and return period T R of the maximum plausible earthquake on crustal faults. The method requires the background seismicity rate (estimated from instrumental data) and the rate of interseismic moment buildup. The method assumes that the moment released by the seismic slip is in balance with the moment deficit accumulated in between earthquakes. It also assumes that the seismicity obeys the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law up to M max . We took into account the aftershocks of large infrequent events that were not represented in the instrumental record, so that we could estimate the average seismicity rate over the entire fault history. We extrapolated the instrumental record, using the GR law to model the frequency of larger events and their aftershocks. This increased the frequencies of smaller events on average; when these smaller events were newly extrapolated, they predicted a higher frequency of larger events. We iterated this process until stability was reached, and then we assumed moment balance when we found the maximum magnitude; we have found this method to be appropriate in applications involving examples of fault with good historical catalogs. We then showed examples of applications to faults with no historical catalogs. We present results from nine cases. For the San Andreas fault system, we find

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“…It separates the Anatolian and Eurasian plates extending for some 1200 km between Eastern Anatolia and the Northern Aegean (e.g. Barka 1992;Sengör et al 2005;Bohnhoff et al 2016a). Westward movement of Anatolia has developed in the framework of the northward moving Arabian plate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%