Mathematical Models and Applicable Technologies to Forecast, Analyze, and Optimize Quality and Risks for Complex Systems

Kostogryzov, Andrey; Krylov, Vladimir A.; Nistratov, Andrey; Nistratov, George; Попов, Владимир Дмитриевич; Stepanov, Pavel V.

doi:10.1061/41177(415)107

Cited by 11 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Ideas 2-5 are implemented in the supporting software tools (Kostogryzov, Nistratov at al. (2004-2011) -see, for example, the "Complex for evaluating quality of production processes" (patented by Rospatent №2010614145) - Figure 13.…”

Section: General Approach To Mathematical Modelling Standard Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management

Kostogryzov¹,

Nistratov²,

Nistratov³

2012

Total Quality Management and Six Sigma

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Additional information is available at the end of the chapter http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/46106Total Quality Management and Six Sigma 132 amount of investments adequate to achieved quality and safety levels that may be guaranteed for the allocated money), to users (the forecast made in time has mobilized them on the basis of the 'forewarned is forearmed' concept; using our recommendations, in utilization stage they can extract from the system the best effects, that were assumed in concept, design&development and support stages).This work is purposed for systems analysts from customers, developers, users, as well as investigators and staff of quality and security management, experts of testing laboratories and certification bodies. It can be used in system life cycle to form system requirements, compare different processes, substantiate technical decisions, carrying out tests, adjust technological parameters, estimate quality and risks. The decisions, scientifically proved by the offered models and software tools, can provide purposeful essential improvement of quality and mitigation of risks and decrease expenses for created and operating systems. The spectrum of the explored systems is indeed broad; it includes systems operated by government agencies, manufacturing structures (including enterprises, oil-and-gas and transport facilities, and hazardous production systems), food storage, power generation, financial and business, aviation and space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, military, etc. Moreover, our assessments and forecasts are generated much faster, feature innovations, have invariably high quality and, most important, the expected effects may be easily interpreted (what specifically is the result and how it can be reached) regardless of whether it pertains to increase in gains or reduction in losses. Eventually, having gained experience and being sure that those instruments are of use, we decided to share our knowledge and skills for analyzing and optimizing system processes in quality management. It should be stressed from the very beginning that no one forces you to use these proposed models, methods, and software tools. Any author trusts primarily his/her own models and is suspicious about someone else's if uses them at all. From this perspective we also understand our colleagues from the writers' community, share their doubts and nevertheless invite them... Join us, the esteemed reader. The knowledge that you will gain after even brief acquaintance with the work or just browsing the book and then comprehending its content will not allow you to continue unsystematic life without forecasting quality and risks! You can easily verify this author's forecast.

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Section: General Approach To Mathematical Modelling Standard Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management

Kostogryzov¹,

Nistratov²,

Nistratov³

2012

Total Quality Management and Six Sigma

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For estimations of these metrics (Т full.i and Т full.i2 ) with reference to Technologies 1, 2, and 3 it is purposed to use classical models of the queueing theory [1][2]4]. For Technologies 4 and 5, the formulas received earlier in works [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] are applicable. Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling.…”

Section: Formalization For Estimation Of Possible Delaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For modelling and estimations, software tools complexes CEISOQ [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] Results of the analysis have shown that at the expense of the choice of rational dispatcher Technology 5 and its optimizing parameters the relative portion of well-timed performed calls is 3 times greater in comparison with the today applied Technologies 1 and 4. And the value of damages can be really reduced!…”

Section: Example Of Rational Dispatchingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling. Evaluations can be carried out with the use of software tools complexes, for example the software tools Complex for Evaluation of Information Systems Operation Quality (CEISOQ) -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2000610272), "Mathematical modelling of system life cycle processes" -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2004610858), "Complex for evaluating quality of production processes" (registered by Rospatent N2010614145) [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23].…”

Section: Formalization For Estimation Of Possible Delaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present article, a possibility of increasing the relative portion of well-timed performance of calls at the expense of optimization of the sequence of their performance is researched. The proposed method is based on the comparison and rational use of essentially differing properties of the following dispatcher technologies: technology for performing calls by the consecutive order "first in, first out" (FIFO) without priorities, technologies with relative and absolute priorities, technology of batch performing, and the multi-parameter technology with a combination of the listed technologies (the two last technologies have been researched earlier by authors of this article in other applications [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The method of rational dispatching a sequence of heterogeneous repair works

Kostogryzov¹,

Atakishchev²,

Nistratov³

et al. 2018

energetika

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For critically important power systems, some repair works should be performed by one repair brigade at the same time. Conditions for performing different works are often characterized by uncertainties. In practice, the term is given for each work, and possible damages exist if the performance of works is not well-timed. Taking into account these factors, the sequence of performing heterogeneous repair works essentially influences the safety and/or efficiency of the power system. The method of rational dispatching of the sequence of heterogeneous repair works considering the requirements of timeliness for their performance is proposed in this paper. The rational sequence of works is established by criteria of minimizing integral damages based on the best choices from different dispatcher technologies and their parameters (such as distribution of work call types by priorities, distribution of call priorities into groups, appointment of technologies inside groups). A possible effect is demonstrated by an example.

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Knowledge Mining Based on Applications of the Methods and Technologies of Risks Prediction

Kostogryzov

Krylov²,

Nistratov³

et al. 2013

Ictis 2013

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Mathematical Models and Applicable Technologies to Forecast, Analyze, and Optimize Quality and Risks for Complex Systems

Cited by 11 publications

References 1 publication

Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management

Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management

The method of rational dispatching a sequence of heterogeneous repair works

Knowledge Mining Based on Applications of the Methods and Technologies of Risks Prediction

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