Mathematical modelling of radiation-induced cancer risk from breast screening by mammography

Abstract

The regression model can be used to predict the total effective risk for clients within breast screening but it cannot be used for exact assessment of total effective risk. Graphical representation of risk could be an easy way to represent risk in a fashion which might be helpful to clients and clinicians.

Calculating Individual Lifetime Effective Risk from Initial Mean Glandular Dose Arising from the First Screening Mammogram

“…This was based on the method described by M.Ali et al [16]. In this figure the cessation age of screening mammography is set at a constant level (75 years old).…”

“…MGD is a primary factor affecting total effective risk as it results in up to 98% of screening mammography total effective risk. The addition of MGD variation to the model established by M.Ali et al [16] refines the model by increasing its accuracy and makes it applicable for different MGD values of different FFDM machines. Accordingly, it becomes possible to calculate total effective risk for any woman by using MGD from the initial mammogram.…”

“…Since these values are only presented for each decade of female age, they were plotted graphically against age in order to extrapolate an approximate value for each year of female life using a linear relationship between decades. Finally, total effective lifetime risk, during female lifetime, for different screening commencement ages (25-74 75 years) and for three different screening frequencies (annual, biennial, and triennial) were calculated, using the method described by M.Ali et al [16].…”

“…This is particularly useful for screening justification and risk-benefit evaluation. Total effective risk during female lifetime is the recommended quantity reported by M.Ali et al [16,17]. Since the breast tissue receives the highest radiation dose, MGD from initial mammogram can be considered to accommodate variations amongst different FFDM machines.…”

“…Since the breast tissue receives the highest radiation dose, MGD from initial mammogram can be considered to accommodate variations amongst different FFDM machines. However, M.Ali et al [16] have not considered MGD variations in their published mathematical model. Accordingly, this work aims to refine M.Ali et.al's model by deriving a woman's total effective risk from MGD from the initial mammogram in addition to screening commencement age and frequency.…”