Mathematical modelling of infection and disease due to Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria lactamica

Coen, Pietro G.; Cartwright, Keith; Stuart, James M.

doi:10.1093/ije/29.1.180

Cited by 58 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…As previously discussed [4], the amalgamation of two studies conducted in different countries in different decades is far from ideal, but it was essential to increase the number of young children in the dataset. Both studies used similar microbiological techniques, and were conducted in countries that have similar meningococcal disease epidemiology.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coen et al [4] suggested that a model in which carriage of N. lactamica conferred temporary immunity against carriage with N. meningitidis was more appropriate than a simple SIS model of carriage. We favoured the SIS approach here for several reasons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). This is the same data as used by Coen et al [4] in their earlier models of N. meningitidis, although data used here were broadly grouped, into serogroup C, serogroup B, other serogroups (including non-groupable strains) and N. lactamica.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the duration of carriage is assumed to be constant this approximates the shape of the curves for the forces of infection, therefore, a function of an appropriate shape to model these curves is needed. Coen et al [4] used a variation of the functional form suggested by Farrington [23]. We preferred to use a smoother function, and derived the following function, which is a combination of two curves.…”

Section: Appendix 1 a Function To Model The Force Of Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

2005

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SUMMARYThe prevalence of Neisseria meningitidis carriage is highest in teenagers and lowest in young children. In contrast, invasive meningococcal disease is most common in young children with a smaller secondary peak in teenagers. Data on carriage and disease were analysed to quantify the risks of infection and disease by age and serogroup. The forces of infection for serogroups B, C, other meningococci and Neisseria lactamica were modelled together with the risk of disease given infection for serogroups B and C, using maximum likelihood to fit the models to the available data. The risk of meningococcal disease given infection declines steeply through childhood and is higher for serogroup C than for serogroup B. The secondary peak in disease in teenagers appears to be explained mostly by increased transmission although there is a suggestion that other factors may also contribute. These analyses provide important insights and may be used to guide further data collection and modelling studies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix 1 a Function To Model The Force Of Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

2005

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“…In comparison to carriage, disease incidence is relatively rare. One of the factors associated with the relatively low disease prevalence is carriage of commensals, such as N. lactamica, in the nasopharyngeal mucosa [7,8]. In support of these studies, we have more recently shown that N. lactamica induces secretion of broadly protective innate IgM [9] and suppresses inflammation during NmB infection of nasopharyngeal cells in vitro using a toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2)-dependent signalling mechanism [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Oral <i>Lactobacillus plantarum</i> NCIMB 8825 Inhibits Adhesion, Invasion and Metabolism of <i>Neisseria meningitidis</i> Serogroup B and Affords Anti-Inflammatory and Cytotoxic Protection to Nasopharyngeal Epithelial Cells

Bekele¹,

Keith²,

Adelina³

et al. 2014

AiM

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In this study, we investigate the potential for oral Lactobacilli (LB) to afford innate protection against nasopharyngeal coloniser Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (NmB), which causes the bulk of UK meningococcal disease. Oral isolates of L. plantarum, L. salivarious, L. casei, L. rhamnosus, L. gasseri and gut probiotic L. rhamnosus GG were assessed for their ability to suppress nasopharyngeal epithelial inflammatory responses to pathogenic NmB. The specificity of attenuation was examined using TLR 2 ligand, Pam3Cys, and early response cytokine IL1β; and the mechanism of attenuation was explored using heat-killed organisms and conditioned medium. Pro-inflammatory IL-6 and TNFα cytokine secretion was quantified by ELISA and associated cell death was quantified by PI staining and LDH release. NmB adhesion, invasion and metabolism were determined using standard gentamicin protection with viable counts, and bioluminescence, respectively. L. plantarum and L. salivarious suppressed IL-6 and TNFα secretions from NmB-infected epithelial cells. LB did not need to be alive and could suppress using secretions, which were independent of TLR2 or IL1β receptor signalling. L. plantarum, in particular, reduced NmB-induced necrotic cell death of epithelial monolayers. Like L. salivarious, it significantly inhibited NmB adhesion but uniquely L. plantarum abolished NmB invasion. Using bioluminescence as a reporter of pathogen metabolism, L. plantarum and its secretions were found to inhibit NmB metabolism during cell invasion assays. We conclude that oral L. plantarum and its secretions could be used to help reduce the burden of meningococcal disease by removing the intracellular nasopharyngeal reservoir of NmB.

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Modeling the effects of information‐dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission

Buonomo

d’Onofrio

Kassa

et al. 2021

Math Methods in App Sciences

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We propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects of information–dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission. The information is represented by means of information index as early proposed by d'Onofrio et al. (Theor. Popul. Biol., 2007). We perform a qualitative analysis based on stability theory, focusing to the global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium (DFE) and the related transcritical bifurcation taking place at the threshold for the DFE. Finally, we assess the role of epidemiological and information parameters in the model dynamics through numerical simulations. Our simulations suggests that the impact of the parameters that are related to human behavior critically depend on the average information delay. For example, it can induce recurrent epidemics, provided that transfer rate from the carrier to the infectious state is over a threshold. Otherwise, the endemic equilibrium is (at least) locally stable.

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Mathematical modelling of infection and disease due to Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria lactamica

Cited by 58 publications

References 38 publications

The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

Oral <i>Lactobacillus plantarum</i> NCIMB 8825 Inhibits Adhesion, Invasion and Metabolism of <i>Neisseria meningitidis</i> Serogroup B and Affords Anti-Inflammatory and Cytotoxic Protection to Nasopharyngeal Epithelial Cells

Modeling the effects of information‐dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission

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Mathematical modelling of infection and disease due to Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria lactamica

Cited by 58 publications

References 38 publications

The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

The natural history of meningococcal carriage and disease

Oral &lt;i&gt;Lactobacillus plantarum&lt;/i&gt; NCIMB 8825 Inhibits Adhesion, Invasion and Metabolism of &lt;i&gt;Neisseria meningitidis&lt;/i&gt; Serogroup B and Affords Anti-Inflammatory and Cytotoxic Protection to Nasopharyngeal Epithelial Cells

Modeling the effects of information‐dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission

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Oral <i>Lactobacillus plantarum</i> NCIMB 8825 Inhibits Adhesion, Invasion and Metabolism of <i>Neisseria meningitidis</i> Serogroup B and Affords Anti-Inflammatory and Cytotoxic Protection to Nasopharyngeal Epithelial Cells